'I spent years in the US Army fighting Russian aggression - I know what Trump is planning and where it leads'

With 20 years of experience in the US military, he's well-versed in America's dealings with hostile actors.

Aucoin served first as a military intelligence analyst in the US Army, then as an ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) Tactical Coordinator for Special Operations Forces that worked on an overt anti-Russia aggression campaign in Poland.

He's the founder of Aucoin Analytics, a private intelligence company and hosts the geopolitical podcast This Week, which analyses global events with nuance and strategic implications.

He's neither "horrified nor encouraged" by Trump's opening play.

"Instead, I see this as consistent with Trump’s long-standing approach to foreign policy, which I call Trumperbole — a mix of hyperbolic statements designed to provoke reactions and gain political leverage," he told GB News.

As Aucoin sees it, Trump has used this tactic since his 2016 campaign.

"He sees himself as a disruptor, often making bold or controversial statements to shift the narrative in his favour. He plays fast and loose with the facts but I don't consider them lies per se.," the ex-intelligence analyst explained.

Aucoin added: "So, while the rhetoric may be alarming, it’s important to separate the theatrics from the potential policy goals. Trump’s statements are less about immediate action and more about setting the stage for a future negotiation."

Although the Army veteran appears more sanguine about Trump's actions than his critics, he acknowledges the dangers.

"In this case, his overture to Putin is concerning because it aligns with Russian narratives, which could undermine US and allied efforts in Ukraine," he said.

However, Aucoin continues, "it’s also clear that Trump’s administration would likely want to end the war in a way that allows them to claim credit for brokering peace. The challenge lies in finding a balance where Putin accepts a deal, but Ukraine and Europe feel secure in the outcome".

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The intelligence analyst rejects what he sees as the simplistic characterisation of Zelensky as merely a profiteer of an altruistic US, as Uncle Sam has other motives for supporting Ukraine.

"The US gains valuable lessons and insights from observing how its equipment and strategies perform in a near-peer conflict. This is critical for preparing for future global conflicts, particularly with adversaries like China," he told GB News.

Indeed, Ukraine and Russia's war economy has innovated at a faster pace than America, with both countries developing superior drone capabilities.

A recent report by the Defense Innovation Board points out that defence vendors face significant barriers in the US, including a protracted development-to-procurement lifecycle. These challenges have hindered the timely adoption of innovative technologies.