Tories predicting by-election catastrophe as Labour poll lead widens
Conservative MPs are dismissing hopes of a by-election victory in Tamworth on Friday, as Labour's poll lead over the party widens
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Conservative MPs are dismissing hopes of a by-election victory in Tamworth on Friday, as Labour's poll lead over the party widens.
A number of MPs have dismissed chances of a win in the constituency as a "lost cause", with one MP pessimistically telling GB News that the party will "lose both" - predicting a catastrophic loss in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, which has a majority of more than 24,0000.
However, some have expressed hopes of having a fighting chance in Mid Bedfordshire, with a former minister telling GB News there is "cautious optimism" in Nadine Dorries' former constituency.
But they dismissed chances of a victory in Tamworth, suggesting it would be a repeat of the 2019 Peterborough byelection which saw the Conservatives take third place behind Labour and the Brexit Party.
Labour has dismissed the remarks as "expectation management", with a party source saying that a double victory for the Conservatives is "really not out of the question at all"
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Another MP agreed that the Tories will lose Tamworth but speculated that Mid Beds "could go either way…"
A Conservative Party insider told GB News the focus is currently on Mid Bedfordshire, saying that many have accepted that Tamworth is already gone.
They said that big losses at the by-elections will put Sunak in a "precarious position", explaining: "There will be a lot of worried MPs from across the party, who wouldn’t have expected to be worried a year ago."
But Labour has dismissed the remarks as "expectation management", with a party source saying that a double victory for the Conservatives is "really not out of the question at all".
They told GB News: "These are two safe Tory seats - 19,000 and 24.5,000 majorities. The idea that those majorities just fall away is fanciful.
"We're on the pitch. Which is testament to how far we've come. We know it's really uphill though."
The source added: "The Lib Dems are campaigning very hard in Mid Beds. But they came third last time. They're third in the polls. And they're third with the bookies.
"So as far as we see it, a vote for the Lib Dems risks letting the Tories back in, in Mid Beds.
"Our message in Mid Beds is a vote for anyone else other than Labour is a vote for the Tories"
They noted that, even in Tamworth, the Conservatives' 19,000 majority saw them take two-thirds of the vote share at the last election. They warned: "That's massive."
Acknowledging that the party has their own expectation management to do, the Labour party insider added: "We’re working hard and we have a chance to make history by winning.
"If not, we are undoubtedly laying a solid foundation for the General Election."
This comes as Labour's lead in the polls has grown to 20 points in new figures published by Delta Poll yesterday.
The latest poll, which surveyed 1,568 adults between October 13 and October 16, saw Labour's lead increase by four points, taking them to 47 per cent approval.
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The Mid Bedfordshire by-election was called after Nadine Dorries stepped down
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Meanwhile, the Conservatives dropped by one point, taking them to 27 per cent approval.
The Liberal Democrats dropped by 2 points, leaving them at 10 per cent approval.
Polls in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire open on Thursday morning, with results expected on Friday.
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