LISTED: The Tory Cabinet Members set to lose their seats in the Election

Rishi Sunak

The Conservative Party is projected to only win 60 seats at the general election

PA/ Find out now and Electoral Calculus
Hannah Ross

By Hannah Ross


Published: 26/06/2024

- 20:00

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt are among those projected to lose their seat

New MRP polling has revealed the Conservative Party could see their worst election result since at least 1900.

The Conservative Party are only expected to win 60 seats in the upcoming general election placing them behind the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats.


Pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now conducted a large-scale poll for GB News using MPR to predict the results of the upcoming election.

The pollsters predict a Labour landslide with a majority of 250 seats, while the Liberal Democrats will become the Official Opposition with 72 seats.

Headline number of seats projected to win by each party

This graph shows the headline number of seats projected to be won by each party

Find out now and Electoral Calculus

In the 2019 general election the Conservative Party won 365 seats and Labour won 203.

Twenty-two Conservative Cabinet Members are likely to lose their seats in the upcoming general election.

Members likely to lose their seats to Labour include Rishi Sunak, Oliver Dowden, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Richard Holden, Chris Heaton-Harris, David Davies, Victoria Prentis, Esther McVey, Andrew Mitchell.

Jeremy Hunt, Alex Chalk, Michelle Donelan, Gillian Keegan, and John Glen are all projected to lose their seat to the Lib Dems.

List of cabinet ministers to lose their seats

This list shows the conservative cabinet minister projected to lose their seats and who they would be gained by

Find out now and Electoral Calculus

Alister Jack is expected to lose to the SNP, Simon Hart to Plaid Cymru and Johnny Mercer to Reform.

Conservative cabinet members who are likely to keep their seats and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest are James Cleverly, Steve Barclay, Mark Harper, Lucy Frazer, Laura Trott, Tom Tugendhat, Michael Tomlinson.

Rishi Sunak has served the Richmond constituency since 2015 and was re-elected as the MP for Richmond (Yorks) in 2017 and 2019.

Now, the current prime minister is battling head-to-head with Labour to hold onto his Richmond and Northallerton seat.

According to the poll, Labour is sitting with 35 per cent of the vote share while the Conservatives are only one percentage point behind at 34 per cent.

The fieldwork for these results was conducted from June 14 to June 24, with a sample size of over 19,000 people.

The poll used MRP methodology to predict every seat and also prompted respondents with the official list of candidates and parties in their own seat, and asked them to indicate how they would vote at the general election.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "The Conservatives are predicted to be in third place in terms of both votes and seats. That would be a disaster for them.

"Labour look set for a massive landslide, but with about one million fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017. More than one voter in every three is going to vote for a party other than Labour or the Tories, which shows many people want change but are not thrilled by Labour."

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