Matt Goodwin warns 'unique’ new poll shows Conservatives should brace for 'make or break' leadership election

Pollster Matt Goodwin said: "This is a unique poll in that we are surveying people who voted Conservative in 2019 but then left the paper last week to either vote Reform, Labour, or Lib Dem."

The People's Poll found, in the overall sample, the most popular candidate to tempt these voters back to the Tory party would be Farage, followed by Boris Johnson (11 per cent).

Goodwin told GB News the findings "underline just how many of these former Conservative voters are aligned with Reform policies and values".

He added: "Furthermore, it underlines the scale of the challenge that is now facing the Tories.

"At the same time, the smaller number of former Conservatives who defected to Labour or the Lib Dems would prefer to see the return of Boris Johnson or former Conservative Party leader, David Cameron, who has since ruled himself out of any return to frontline politics.

"This too underlines how that unique 2019 Conservative Party coalition has blown apart.

"There is simply no easy way forward for the Conservative Party in what looks set to be a 'make or break' leadership election."

The respondents, who had voted Conservative in 2019 and not again in 2024, were asked which of the following leaders would make them consider voting for the Tories again.

• Nigel Farage - 25 per cent
• Boris Johnson - 11 per cent
• Suella Braverman - eight per cent
• Kemi Badenoch - four per cent
• David Cameron - four per cent
• James Cleverly - three per cent
• Tom Tugendhat - three per cent
• Priti Patel - two per cent
• Robert Jenrick - one per cent
• Victoria Atkins - zero per cent
• Don’t know - 19 per cent
• Somebody else - six per cent
• None of the above - 14 per cent

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Among the respondents who instead voted for Labour in 2024 said they would want Boris Johnson or David Cameron tied first, then Nigel Farage.

Those who left for Reform said, by far, they wanted Nigel Farage. Boris Johnson was a distant second for this group of respondents.

Former Tories who left for the Lib Dems said they wanted Boris Johnson, then David Cameron and Tom Tugenhadt in tied second place.