Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would lose their seats to Reform UK if a General Election was held today, a shock new opinion poll has revealed.
The MRP poll conducted by PLMR and Electoral Calculus showed a major shift in public opinion since Labour’s landslide victory in the 2024 General Election.
The survey also puts support for Sir Keir Starmer level with Kemi Badenoch’s Tories on just 23 per cent.
Reform UK emerged as the most popular political party, edging ahead of both Labour and the Tories on 24 per cent.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela RaynerPAThe poll of 5,743 British adults also revealed seat changes since the 2024 General Election.
Labour would face a collapse from 412 to just 178 seats, with the Tories making modest gains to take them from 121 to 178.
However, Reform UK would emerge as the main beneficiaries, surging from just five MPs to 175.
Rayner and Cooper would likely lose their respective seats of Ashton-under-Lyne and Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley.
The pair held onto their seats with majorities of 6,791 and 6,630, as Reform secured strong second place finishes in both seats.
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Nigel FaragePAJonathan Reynolds, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, is also forecast to lose Stalybridge & Hyde to Reform, while Health Secretary Wes Streeting is expected to lose hold of Ilford North to the Tories.
The survey also suggested the Liberal Democrats would likely sustain modest Blue Wall loses, taking Sir Ed Davey’s Commons contingent down from 72 to just 57 MPs.
However, the SNP looks set to surge back into first place in Scotland, securing 37 seats in the most recent MRP survey.
Such a scenario could leave Farage as kingmaker, providing enough support to prop up Labour or the Tories in a "coalition of equals" type deal.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll, said: "Of course, there is a long, long way to go until the next election.
“History is littered with British Governments who were unpopular in the initial years and who then turned it around. Labour knows very well what it needs to deliver in order to win again.
"This poll shows multiple challenges for the two established parties as Reform UK continues to show momentum and is picking up support from disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters in economically struggling areas.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper
PA
"A three-way split of the vote is practically unheard of in British politics and points to shifts in the political make-up of the United Kingdom.“The Conservative Party will be particularly concerned that they are not able to move ahead of Labour in the polls as the official Opposition."If the Labour Government succeeds in its mission to grow the economy and inject optimism into the economic fortunes of households, I have no doubt they can turn things around - especially if the vote on the right remains so divided.".Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, added: "Our survey shows an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics.“If there were a general election tomorrow, any of the three parties could come out on top but would be unlikely to have an overall majority.“This represents a massive change in public opinion since the general election just seven months ago."
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