Imagine, it’s 2029 and Nigel Farage is on his way back from Buckingham Palace, having just ‘kissed hands’ with the King.
In Downing Street, hundreds of jubilant union flag-waving Reform supporters are waiting. In a penned-off area opposite the door of Number 10, stand the panjandrums of the MSM. They look thoroughly miserable. The BBC, ITV and Sky had all predicted the polls were wrong.
Inside the Cabinet Office, senior civil servants look anxious. Nobody really expected Reform to win a clear majority in the House of Commons. There is no detailed plan to implement the most radical policy agenda since Labour unexpectedly won a huge mandate for change in 1945.
A fantasy? Who can say. What we can assert with accuracy is that Reform is now out in front. This week, for the first time, a YouGov poll put the party ahead of both Labour and Tories. Of course, the general election is four years away and there is many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip. Can the party’s vetting processes weed out every wrong ‘un? Will Labour’s seemingly disastrous stewardship of the economy turn a corner?
But let’s assume Nigel gets his wish and Britain - belatedly - joins the right-wing populist revolution that has been sweeping Europe and North America. Having won the battle of the ballot box, Reform will then face a very different political conflict - with the Deep State.
I used to have trouble with that phrase. Too redolent of conspiracy theorists in tin-foil hats. But I’ve changed my mind. Partly because pithy phrases are better at explaining ideas. But also because of the evidence of my own eyes.
If they win the battle of the ballot box, Reform will then face a very different political conflict - with the Deep State.
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Consider two examples from just this week alone. Public sector unions threatening strike action because their members can no longer work from home. And police in Manchester publishing the name and address of a man arrested for burning a Koran, even though identifying him puts his life at risk. A theme links both these stories. Not just public servants acting against the public interest. But actions which stem from a belief that those in-the-know, know best.
On working from home, I understand why government employees want to. Less commuting, nicer homes outside London, cheaper childcare. And, if they can find a private employer willing to let them WFH, then good for them. But not with my taxpayer pounds.
As for the arrest of the holy book-burning man (whose name we now know because police decided to publish it along with his address), it’s hard not to see something worse than institutional indolence at work. Putting a man’s life at risk, perhaps his family’s too, may be some people’s idea of justice. After all, he must’ve known the risk he was taking. But by making an assassin’s job easier, Greater Manchester Police seem to be siding with those who feel that blasphemy is a crime. When, in fact, no such law exists on Britain’s statute books.
In truth, there are countless such examples. The Deep State is that part of the public sector which defies scrutiny and democratic accountability in pursuance of its own opaque agenda. It is a vested interest in the most profound sense. And, I fear, it will be extremely reluctant to implement the manifesto on which - come 2029 - Reform might be elected.
Donald Trump has brought shock and awe to The Establishment and his political adversaries within it.
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The unions will strike. And not just the usual suspects. But Whitehall white-collar unions too. They will invoke the Civil Service code and say they cannot be coerced into working on policies - around deportations for example - they “know” to be in breach of international law. Our unelected House of Lords will block measures that make the most of Brexit, just as it sought to sabotage our exit from the EU the first time around. In the courts there will be ‘lawfare' and judicial activism. On our screens outrage from MSM and NGOs. In government departments, caviling and foot dragging. On the streets Just Stop Oil-style protests on steroids.
What could a Reform government do to deliver on its promises to the electorate? It could start by making a close study of the last few weeks in Washington. Trump has brought shock and awe to The Establishment and his political adversaries within it. If taxpayer-funded bodies show no sign of siding with his objectives then they will be closed, and quickly.
Just look at US Aid. It employs 10,000 staff, with an annual budget of $40bn, some of which ends up in North Korea and Iran. There are obvious parallels with our own £14bn foreign aid budget, which Reform has pledged to halve. This week US Aid employees were barred from their offices and denied access to emails. Some resigned, others were suspended. President Trump told reporters that US Aid has "been run by a bunch of radical lunatics," adding: "We're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision.”
There will be legal challenges. The demonstrations have already started. However, with control of Congress and Musk at the helm of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Trump can be decisive. His ‘act first, ask questions later’ may seem like irresponsible government. But, from Foreign Aid to the Home Office, it may be the only effective method Reform has of blunting the Deep State.
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