Russian President Vladimir Putin has again taken to try to scare us with nuclear weapons, threatening to use them against Britain and other Western nations.
In his annual state of the nation address in Moscow, which has increasingly become a diatribe against Nato, Putin said that countries sending troops to fight in Ukraine would threatening direct confrontation.
Is he bluffing and why did he say it? It is, in part, a bluff. But not entirely.
The Russians sadly have a long history of trying to threaten nuclear war. They do so in part because they may feel threatened, but they also do it as a deliberate policy of intimidating Western opinion to give themselves more leeway in policy. Even after the collapse of the USSR, the Russians threatened Denmark a few years ago.
Vladimir Putin has threatened the use of nuclear weapons on a number of occasions
Getty/Reuters
Cowering their adversaries is part of the cynical bullying game they play.
He did the same just at the start of the Ukraine invasion in February 2022.
His remarks this time may be in part a counter to the French leader’s foolish statement calling for Nato troops in Ukraine. President Emmanuel Macron’s comments show that he is out of his depth as a leader. He should stop posturing and instead deliver the kit he and other EU leaders have promised.
However, I do not believe Putin is entirely bluffing.
First, the Russians in theory and in practice are more relaxed about using nuclear weapons. That’s been the case since the collapse of the USSR, and even before. That assessment has been backed by recent papers revealed by the Financial Times which show a much lower threshold of nuclear weapon use than expected, and I believe Russian commanders believe that there could be a logical case for tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, under some circumstances.
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Second, most Western commentators assess that he is bluffing, but I don’t trust conventional wisdom when dealing with Russia. Those who say Putin won’t use nukes are western commentators and politicians. Those who say Russia will use them are Russian commentators and the Russian leader himself.
Third, the Kremlin likes to signal intent. And Putin has signalled clearly about nuclear weapons. He is not someone who will back down.
Nato regular soldiers in Ukraine on the front lines would potentially spark such a nuclear crisis.
The way that we avoid any potential escalation is as follows.
First, ensure that we supply the Ukrainians so that they can defend themselves, but NOT to pledge to send regular NATO troops.
Second, to have a very clear plan to de-escalate any situation that looks like it could lead to disaster.
Third, make very clear to the Russians that we are supporting Ukraine because under international law it has the right to defend itself. Russia must understand that international law is on our side. It will make it more difficult for Putin to act against us.
We live in an increasingly dangerous world.
Nuclear weapon is not likely or by any means certain, but we need to carefully calibrate our actions and we should speak with a sense of proportion and care, unlike President Macron. Putin wants us to be frightened. But we also need to stop burying our heads in the sand, as we have done with Russia for too long. He wants to internationalise this crisis more – he already believes he is at war with Nato.
Putin is a dangerous man. We need to ensure we tread on firm ground when we act.
