Tom Harwood: Let’s not plunge January into lockdown for the sake of Christmas

Christmas is saved.

Last night a video message from out gracious Prime Minister revealed that no new legal restrictions would be imposed before Boxing Day in England.

But there's the catch - no new restrictions... before Boxing Day.

Nicola Sturgeon of course confirmed the same for Scotland yesterday, although spelled out a sting in the tail - detailing onerous restrictions to be imposed thereafter, including capacity limits, one metre distancing, compulsory table service in pubs,

In Wales from the 27th of this month, nightclubs will be closed, a two-metre social distancing rule introduced, sports played spectator free, and one-way systems imposed upon shops.

For his part Northern Ireland’s Health Minister Robin Swann has said "We'll not boost our way simply out of Omicron”, and further post-Christmas curbs are expected to be decided for that corner of our kingdom later today.

And in England of course, Boris Johnson is leaving the prospect of post-Christmas restrictions wide open.

The upshot is bleak.

Across the United Kingdom, it appears the cost of quote ‘saving Christmas’ will be to jettison January.

In my view that is a terrible bargain.

The worst of both worlds.

Positioning policy to protect one weekend of intergenerational mixing at the expected peak of the Omicron epidemic, only to then impose restrictions once cases are expected to be tumbling back down.

This is madness.

This is bad policy.

This as a primary course of action is reportedly opposed by not just me, but the scientists too.

If restrictions, or preferably fresh advice, is to be imposed, that should be done now. Not after the fact.

I know I have said this a lot this week, but it is a really important point to hammer home:

Everyone. Everyone in this country is going to get Omicron in the next few months. That cannot be avoided. This disease is so incredibly infectious.

I’m sure many of you will have had first or second hand experience of that fact.

It feels like half my contacts book has come down with the wretched thing in the last week alone.

So the point here is not to prevent people getting Omicron. That is impossible. That cannot be done.

The point must be to avoid people – especially vulnerable people - getting Omicron at the same time.

If half the country decides to have their Christmas celebration next weekend instead of this weekend, that could halve the Covid pressure on the NHS in two to three weeks’ time.

That could be the difference between a vulnerable person getting the oxygen they need, verses being left to suffer without adequate treatment.

It could be the difference between life and death.

Yet what is the earthly point of post-Christmas restrictions? What on earth are they meant to achieve? Apart from making a miserable month that bit more miserable?

We should be aiming to spread the Omicron load over a number of weeks rather than in effect encouraging one last big intergenerational party before everything gets restricted again.

That is the message of policy in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the message of the threat of policy in England too.

Just like the curfew last year, this attempted intervention may well do more harm than good.

Implicitly encouraging partying over Christmas, implying it can be paid for with restrictions later on.

If measures are needed, the time for such measures is now.

If we opt to not have measures now, there is no justification for onerous restrictions to be imposed after this weekend.

But maybe the UK government knows this. Perhaps sense will be seen.

Perhaps we will have no onerous restrictions imposed after Boxing day in this part of the United Kingdom after all.

Although looking at Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland that might be wishful thinking.

Now, none of this is to say that Omicron is not a risk to public health. It is.

Omicron is not a cold. It kills. It has the potential to cause severe problems for the NHS – to deny NHS care to many people – if that is, everyone comes down with it at the same time.

It's just that the idea of long-lasting draconian restrictions after a big celebration seem to me to be the very definition of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

It appears it is too late for Scotland. Too late for Wales. And too late for Northern Ireland.

But there is still time for England to see sense.

Let’s not plunge January into further onerous, potentially counterproductive, draconian restrictions. Let’s avoid that signal.

Jettisoning January for the sake of a Christmas Weekend is just too high a price to pay.