You may not want to hear this, but the truth is much of politics is guesswork. Political leaders may speak with confidence from their party conference stages but it is with a certainty that, in their heart of hearts, they do not feel.
That means how you vote becomes largely an article of faith. You have to believe the next lot will make a better fist of it than the last lot. Or stick with the devil you know.
Keir Starmer says he will scrap the Tory Rwanda policy no matter what. Even if it works. He is probably right that it won’t, and that the expense does not justify it.
The Government could keep a migrant in a hotel for 12 years for the £600,000 it would cost to send each one to the central African country.
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But suppose, just suppose, it does act as the deterrent the Government claims. Suppose, just suppose, the Supreme Court does give it the green light, and suppose, just suppose, it achieves Rishi Sunak’s ambitious - even foolhardy - pledge to stop the cross-Channel boats in their tracks. It would be difficult for Prime Minister Starmer to abandon it.
Mr Starmer’s plan to treat the 7.7 million patients now languishing on hospital waiting lists is a good one. Paying doctors and nurses overtime to get through an extra 2.2 million appointments each year is an innovative way to bring an end to this scandal.
But it will cost more than £1billion to be paid for by making the non-dom super-rich cough up their full taxes in Britain. It is estimated that this will bring in £3.2billion which would leave plenty left over.
The London School of Economics calculates that on average non-doms each have £420,000 squirrelled away in untaxed income and only 100 of them would leave the country to avoid the new tax.
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According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies Imposing VAT on fees for private schools in the first year of a Labour Government will raise between £1.3 - £1.5billion
PA
But what if this estimate is wrong? What if they all up sticks and disappear? Non-doms are by their nature highly mobile so that is not beyond the bounds of possibility. They could easily set up shop again in a country more advantageous for tax purposes. And bang goes that £3.2billion.
According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies Imposing VAT on fees for private schools in the first year of a Labour Government will raise between £1.3 - £1.5billion which means an extra 6,500 teachers could be hired for the state sector.
This is also an issue of fairness. People should be able to spend their money as they choose but the general taxpayer should not be asked to subsidise that choice.
But the amount raised is predicated on parents being able to afford the extra 20 per cent it will cost them. If they cannot, and withdraw their children, some private schools will go bust. And bang goes that £1.5billion.
Polls suggest that Rishi Sunak failed to convince voters last week in Manchester that he was the right man to lead Britain for the next five years
GB NEWSMr Starmer is not the only one to rely on the electorate believing what he says to be true. Rishi Sunak is not immune from this either.
The PM’s plan to eradicate smoking by raising the legal age for buying cigarettes by a year every year until even 90 year olds will not be able to get their hands on them has gone down well - except with some Conservatives who grumble it is unconservative.
From a health point of view it is the right thing to do and Labour will also adopt it. It will ultimately save 75,000 unnecessary deaths a year. But there will be problems with enforcement.
It means an 18-year-old born on a certain day will be able to legally buy cigarettes while one who arrived in the world a day later will not. And there is the not inconsequential matter of how to plug the £10billion gap in revenue the Treasury sweeps up from tobacco taxes.
The only guaranteed sources of funding come from raising income and sales taxes and both the Tories and Labour have promised not to do that. So it does appear that some of these calculations have been written on the back of a fag packet.
Polls suggest that Rishi Sunak failed to convince voters last week in Manchester that he was the right man to lead Britain for the next five years. It did not help that his conference became a catwalk for leadership hopefuls to strut their stuff as they vied for his job.
Keir Starmer has taken such an iron grip on his party that no one would dare challenge for his job. But in Liverpool tomorrow he must still deliver the speech of his life to prove that he is fit to take over from Mr Sunak.
It may well be enough that voters have lost faith in the Tories for a Labour victory. But he can only be certain of that if he can instill in them a faith in him.
