Reform UK's biggest asset is also its biggest weakness - Mark Oaten

Reform has a big problem and it makes the party weak - Mark Oaten

GB News/ Getty Images
Mark Oaten

By Mark Oaten


Published: 07/01/2025

- 09:54

OPINION: If anything were to happen to Nigel Farage, the party is vulnerable

It’s that time of year to make new resolutions. For Keir Starmer, it’s easy - must try better, but what should the opposition parties be looking to achieve in 2025.

The Tories have a slight spring in their step, thankful that they did not implode after the election and enjoying the car crash of Labour’s first months in office. Kemi Badenoch’s early actions as Leader have avoided own goals but she’s not set the world on fire and it’s yet to be clear if the public will warm to her matter-of-fact style. The voice is irritating and at PMQ’s she’s yet to land a punch. 2025 needs to be the year Tories define what they want to be. Are they a tougher version of the Lib Dems or a softer image of Reform?


It’s an incredibly hard Jekyll and Hyde-like tightrope act - trying to attract back voters in the Southwest from the Lib Dems without pushing more of their supporters into the arms of Reform. The solution is part style, part substance and so far, neither are clear or developed.

Ed Davey

Local elections in May will be a major opportunity for the Liberal Democrats.

Getty Images

Meanwhile, Ed Davy must be frustrated that his party only seem to make the news when he is throwing himself off something. His grim wish for 2025 might be that an opposition MP dies and creates a by-election. The party would love nothing more than the chance to show they are still winners and take a seat from Labour or the Tories.

The local elections on May 25 will be another opportunity to flex muscle. The party does well during election wartime but has failed to raise its national profile despite the 70-plus newly elected MPs. On the ground 2025 will be the chance for these MPs to become established grassroots champions by building up the goodwill with constituents they will need in time for the next general election.

Nigel Farage

Reform is vulnerable as a one-man party.

Getty Images

The leader and party with the most to look forward to must be Reform. 2024 was the year they came of age with the long-awaited election of Farage to Parliament along with a handful of colleagues. He has ended the year on a high creating media speculation that he can even become Prime Minister at the next election with the backing of billionaires like Musk. 2025 needs to be a year of building a foundation to back up the high media profile.

Elections are won with a combination of air and ground war. He is the master or the former, but the party now needs to build a grassroots army and learn from established parties how local parties and volunteer networks can deliver the vote at elections. But they would be wise to not copy everything from the old parties. Posting leaflets in letterboxes and knocking on doors may become redundant and Farage is likely to invest more and more on social media to get the Reform message targeted to different geographic and generational groups.

There is however one big weakness in Reform and it’s also the biggest asset. It feels like Nigel’s party but if anything were to happen to him, they are vulnerable - so in the year ahead expect them to try and recruit some high-profile names from the Tory party and world of business and to raise the profile of a few more individuals so it looks less like a one-man band and more like a national political movement with depth from top bottom.

Predictions are for the birds. It will be events in 2025 that define success and failure for Reform, and only a crystal ball can work that out.

You may like