Reform UK is just a handy rucksack for protest votes - here's how that can change, says Nigel Nelson

I came away convinced Nigel was a shoo-in for the seat. Everywhere we went he was mobbed by people who wanted to shake his hand or grab him for a selfie.

His popularity was astonishing, only matched when I later travelled the country with Jeremy Corbyn and witnessed the adulation the then Labour leader received. Talk about chalk and cheese.

But on election night when the ballot papers were counted Nigel lost by 2,800 votes, coming second to Tory Craig Mackinlay.

My conclusion was that people were keen to stand by Nigel because he was a celebrity, but that didn’t mean they would stand with him and give him their vote.

No wonder the GB News presenter is reticent about getting involved in the rough and tumble of another election. Ukip polled 4 million votes that year and only returned one MP, Douglas Carswell in Clacton, Essex.

Which leads us to a sober assessment of Ukip's reincarnation, Reform UK. It’s candidate in the Wellingborough by-election, Ben Habib, is delighted with his 13 per cent share of the vote, a little more than Ukip polled nationally in 2015.

But even if that holds up, the prediction is that not a single Reform MP would result.

The threat Reform poses to both Labour and Conservatives, in different ways, is real enough though. The fortunes of those parties depend on whether Reform stays the course, or nosedives before reaching the finishing line.

Research by think tank Labour Together suggests that if Reform melts away Keir Starmer’s lead would be cut to 4 points and he would end up 14 short of an overall majority.

Labour Together’s Josh Williams said: “A collapse in the resurgent Reform party, just like Ukip and the Brexit party before them, could change the picture entirely.”

And he cautions against a huge Labour majority even if Reform does maintain its present support. He reckons the 17 per cent of wobbly undecideds could switch back to the Tories and narrow Labour’s lead to 13 points and a 78 Commons majority. So no 1997 landslide then.

More In Common pollsters reckon a Reform vote of 10 per cent will cost the Tories 39 seats, and 47 seats at 12 per cent. If they hit 15 per cent, that’s 63 Tories down the Swanee. Yikes.

Sunak and Starmer stick to the number five for their pledges. Reform leader Richard Tice prefers just four - lower taxes, net zero immigration, zero NHS waiting lists and cheaper energy. With a Trumpian “Let’s Make Britain Great” slogan thrown in.

Laudable aims. But do they stack up? Their economic policy would take 6 million people out of tax by lifting the minimum threshold to £20,000. Reform would scrap VAT on energy, reduce it by 2 per cent everywhere else, cut fuel duty, and lift the 40 per cent tax threshold to £70,000.

Public services are going to take a battering once the Treasury has coughed up for that lot.

Can’t see your GP within three days? Then Reform will give you a voucher to go to a private one. There were 358 million appointments with an NHS family doctor last year, and there are only 3,000 private GPs. I’ll leave you to do the maths for that one.

And the Reform plan to stop the boats is to copy Australia and turn them back. This is like comparing pears and pumpkins.

The migrant boats heading to Australia were bigger and sturdier than the inflatable paddling pools crossing the Channel.

As the PM told the Express: “You can’t turn around a little rubber dingy without it essentially capsizing.”

So Tice has some hard graft to do on his policy portfolio before he can tell his activists to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government.

And until and unless that work is done, Reform will continue to be what it is now - a handy rucksack for protest votes.