The lesson from the 2024 general election is that the electorate loathes Labour and could not care for the Liberals either. The British electorate has swung to the “right”.
How, you ask, could that possibly be correct? Labour won a thumping majority, and the lousy Liberals dramatically increased their number of seats. The answer to the paradox is in the numbers.
First, turnout dropped dramatically to just over 59 per cent, from over 67 per cent in 2019. People who had repeatedly voted for conservatism did not turn out.
The majority voted to leave the EU in 2019, they voted Conservative in 2017 and 2019, and they voted for the Brexit Party in the Euro elections of that same year. Despite winning on every occasion, the country did not leave the EU (Northern Ireland has been left behind/ the UK remains hitched at the regulatory hip to the EU) and has not been run on conservative lines.
Small-"c" conservatives did not fully turn out in 2024, not because they were apathetic but because they were despondent.
And there was the emergence of my erstwhile party – Reform. It took over four million votes, leaving the Tories with just under seven million. Together, that block would have beaten Labour with their 9.7 million votes.
Reform made political history by gaining five seats in Parliament.
Here is my final proof: Labour got fewer votes in 2024 than they did in 2019. Yes, Starmer won his thumping majority by doing worse than Jeremy Corbyn!
Get the picture? The people do not want liberal global socialism. They want democratic sovereign conservatism.
Both Reform and the Tories need to take that on board.
The ensuing natural accusation might be that it was Reform that split the vote and prevented the Tories from winning. Such a conclusion would be wholly wrong. People voted for Reform because the Conservative Party was not conservative. It had become infected with a huge dose of liberal globalism. The Tories needed a kicking. They got one.
As Reform heads to the centre, the Tories appear to be going right, says Ben Habib
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To repeat: the takeaway from the 2024 election is that the country is crying out for the United Kingdom to be put first.
Sadly, having breached the glass ceiling of our first-past-the-post electoral system and gaining seats in Parliament because Reform relentlessly followed a UK first set of policies, it appears to be heading straight to the middle ground.
Nigel Farage is on the record saying he is not concerned about the rate of demographic change in the country, that he is not in favour of the mass deportation of illegal migrants, and, on my bugbear, Northern Ireland, he thinks it will eventually unite with Ireland. Hardly a United Kingdom first agenda when you are prepared to cede part of the country.
He has also recruited a billionaire treasurer, Nick Candy, who counts Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson as his friends. To anyone with a country first approach, Blair and Mandelson are devils.
Finally, it would seem Reform’s approach to creating a bigger grassroots and candidates list is to recruit the very Tories Reform had vowed to put out of business, including some it did indeed put out to pasture. The country will not be saved by Reform becoming a version of the Tory Party.
Kemi Badenoch, as quiet as she has been, seems to be taking her party to a better place. She has said the rate of demographic change is a huge concern. She understands the divisions created by multiculturalism combined with progressive discrimination through diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Her lieutenant, Robert Jenrick, rightly favours mass deportations, and he has been totally robust on the matter of grooming gangs.
As Reform heads to the centre ground, the Tories appear to be going right.
What a curious topsy-turvy world in which we live.
It is way too early to make any predictions. As things stand, an electoral coalition between Reform and the Tories looks likely. But who would have the upper hand in such a partnership? For me, it will undoubtedly be the party which the people can see genuinely puts first the country.
Nigel woe betide you if you keep going left. Kemi – keep going right!
