"Time for realism, as many people legally settled here need and deserve better and more affordable housing," says Sir John Redwood
No wonder the UK is short of homes. In 2022 an additional 1.2 million migrants arrived with only 450,000 people leaving. In just one year we needed to house an extra 745,000. It was not much less in 2023.
That meant we should have built three cities the size of Southampton in 2022, and almost the same again in 2023. That's a huge number of new homes. The residents would also need the shops, the utility supplies, the schools and hospitals to go with them so I say we need to build them cities if we invite them here.
The average home in the UK is lived in by 2.2 people. 745,000 extra people need 340,000 homes. The Government only plans 300,000 extra homes a year, so they will need to greatly curb migration if this is to be enough.
Instead, Labour looks likely to grant asylum to most of those who have come illegally to clear the hotels. All these people will need homes of their own. Where will the Government find them as it tries to step up the build rate?
People newly granted asylum status but the homeless will get priority over people already settled here seeking better and more suitable accommodation. It will also add to the incentive for more to try to come. The Government have in addition promised more safe routes for more migrants seeking a better life.
The plan to build 300,000 new homes a year is based around granting more planning permissions to build. That is not currently the main reason why build rates are a third below where the government wants them. There are hundreds of thousands of plots with permission available and owned by builders.
They do not build on them more quickly because people cannot afford the homes. Demand is lacking. All the time mortgages are scarce and interest rates so much higher than two or three years ago builders will go slow on building as they need someone to afford to buy the home.
The UK is chronically short of rental properties in many places with rents rising too high. The last Government began giving tenants more rights and landlords more burdens just as the cost of a mortgage to buy a property to let rose sharply and tax relief was cut. The new Government says it wants to go further in regulating landlords. These policies tried elsewhere have resulted in fewer landlord properties, less choice for tenants and higher rents.
The Government needs to allow worthwhile returns and fair contracts if it wants to boost the private rented sector. Many would like the public sector to build and rent out more, but this seems ruled out on any scale by the Chancellor's efforts to limit more public spending and borrowing.
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It looks very unlikely granting more planning permissions will boost output of homes by 50 per cent any time soon. New homes also need new everything else to go with to provide the services people need.
It is true we are due a modest cut or two in interest rates which will ease things a bit, but far too many people who need a home cannot afford one as prices have soared this century. They need property to let so more attention needs to be given to why so many smaller landlords are selling up or are unable or unwilling to invest in more homes.
The obvious way to ease the homes shortage and cut the pressure on prices and rents is to make a large reduction in legal migration.
Labour says they will build a new city or three, but there will not be the three new Southampton's this year, next year or the year after that we would need if we carry on with recent rates of visa granting. Time for realism, as many people legally settled here need and deserve better and more affordable housing.
