'If Kemi Badenoch misses out on Tory leadership, it'll be due to one odd decision in her campaign,' says Kevin Foster

After strong performances in the 2022 contest, it seemed only a matter of time before one of them would be leader. Yet one was a non-starter and the other appears set to miss being on the Member’s Ballot.

Being the early “front-runner” might be a handy title for getting career minded MPs onto your team, but it brings with it disadvantages: More scrutiny from the media, and other campaigns knowing they need a strategy to overtake you, so plan to do so.

Conference was a chance to sense where the candidates are and how they see themselves.

Team Tom was having a lot of fun. James Cleverly looked to show a serious statesman side.

Robert Jenrick cementing his position as the new front runner and planning for the member’s ballot. Kemi looking to show members wanted to vote for her, a clue her team privately suspect MPs may not give them the opportunity to do so.

The potential for Kemi to miss out on the Member’s ballot is not due to her Conference speech, a specific gaffe or taking time to be with her family. Neither will it be the fault of an odd campaign slogan which had to be explained from the main stage.

If she does, or loses in the members' round, it will be due to her reminding people of another failed campaign: Ready for Rishi.

Sunak’s campaign sought to present him as fresh and exciting, someone who would shake things up for a new political era.

Now we can look back and see the big slogans, but small plans, simply raised voters’ expectations, ready for them to be dashed ahead of a General Election. Lack of experience in a tough operational department like the Home Office or Health also coming home to roost.

The first sign of Kemi’s campaign stumbling came the week after the election.

An undignified spat with Suella Braverman after a brief out of what Kemi said at Shadow Cabinet left many despairing, we could not even have one week where leadership rivals were not clashing in the press.

The second was how, rather than seeking to distance from current leadership, Kemi’s campaign was effectively launched by Rishi Sunak’s closest allies, Claire Coutinho and Laura Trott.

Kemi has high-profile supporters who were not mates of Mr Sunak, notably Sir Simon Clarke. It is therefore odd Kemi’s team decided to put up two who are talented, but helped create an unwelcome image of Kemi being similar to Sunak.

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This was compounded as behind the scenes many of those approaching MPs about backing Kemi are the same who talked to them about Ready for Rishi.

The MP’s ballots demonstrated Kemi’s favourite title was lost and showed Robert Jenrick has a spot on the member’s ballot, with the magic 41+ MP votes necessary to confirm this close.

The question now, is will James or Kemi be on the ballot with Robert? That's followed by who can win the members over?

Jenrick looks to be growing in the member’s polls, with Cleverley coming up the outside amongst MPs as the crunch vote nears.

We all remember the Portillo moment of 1997.

Yet there was a second in 2001, when he missed out on the Member’s Ballot despite being the early favourite for Leader. Don’t be surprised if we see something similar this week.