Britain is rapidly losing its position on the global stage. By 2030, we are set to be overtaken by countries like Poland in both GDP per capita and military strength. Our own military leaders admit that in a conflict with Russia, we would run out of critical ammunition in just ten days. The harsh reality is that Britain’s influence is being eroded—not because of diplomatic failures, but due to economic stagnation.
Keir Starmer’s diplomatic approach has, in some ways, been successful. His team has managed to gain the attention and even the respect of Donald Trump, outperforming even Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to build a rapport with the former US President. Britain has maintained a presence in discussions on Ukraine, leveraging soft power and a degree of military support. But this is all built on an increasingly shaky foundation. Without economic growth, Britain cannot sustain its role as a global power.
My recent report from the Henry Jackson Society, Strategic Security, highlights how Britain is in no position to counter threats from authoritarian regimes like Russia or China. Defence spending of 2-2.5 per cent of GDP is rendered meaningless when the country is locked into an economic decline. The US has maintained defence spending near four per cent of GDP - something the UK cannot match if current trends continue.
Starmer’s economic policies are accelerating the problem. Increased taxes, rising public sector wages, and overregulation - from landlords to football clubs - signal an unwillingness to learn from Britain’s mistakes over the last decade or from the economic missteps of Joe Biden’s administration in the U.S. Britain’s reliance on cheap labour over capital investment has stifled innovation and economic growth.
Defence suffers even more when two hidden factors are considered: military procurement and energy costs. The UK is increasingly unable to maintain and repair its own military equipment. The reason? Energy costs. Britain has pursued net-zero policies with almost religious fervour, leading to the highest consumer and producer energy costs in the world. This means our defence budget buys less, and we are becoming ever more reliant on U.S. support to keep our military functioning.
Britain is rapidly losing its position on the global stage, writes Dr Azeem Ibrahim
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Starmer’s government continues to embrace outdated liberal policies that have been abandoned by other nations. Central European powers, once distracted by net-zero goals, are now focused on strengthening their military capabilities. Yet Britain persists in prioritising virtue-signaling over national security.
At one time, rapid decarbonisation may have won the UK some credibility on the world stage, but those days are long gone. Instead, our economy is being hollowed out while the public sector swells to an unprecedented size.
Rather than securing Britain’s energy independence, Starmer’s government is shutting down North Sea gas production. The result? Lost jobs and increased reliance on foreign energy, including from Russia. Billions are being funnelled into solar power subsidies, benefiting those who can exploit taxpayer money - some of whom happen to be major Labour donors. Meanwhile, private companies are making genuinely effective investments, such as the Xlinks project, which will deliver solar energy from Morocco via an undersea cable to provide eight per cent of the UK’s power. Instead of supporting such innovation, the government prefers to subsidise inefficient solar farms in cloudy Wales and wind projects that lack proper grid infrastructure.
This obsession with appearances extends beyond energy policy. The handover of the Chagos Islands and ongoing discussions about reparations to Caribbean states reveal a government more interested in moral posturing than real governance. The same mindset led Labour to drive wealthy individuals out of the UK by aggressively taxing non-domiciled residents. Over 10,000 millionaires fled Britain in the past year alone, second only to China in the exodus of wealth creators. The government’s concern was not the economic consequences, but rather the optics - punishing success for the sake of political theatre.
Britain is at a crossroads. The last few weeks have shown what the country could achieve - if only it had the economic and military strength to back up its ambitions. The Henry Jackson Society’s report lays out clear recommendations for reforming regulations, immigration policy, energy strategy, and taxation. The choice is simple: restore growth and confront our adversaries, or accept decline. Unfortunately, Starmer’s government appears set on the latter course.
