For a defeated politician Jacob Rees-Mogg finds himself in an unusual position. He is much in demand.
That wouldn’t be how he would have felt back in July last year. After 14 years as MP he had been rejected by the voters of North East Somerset and Hanham and replaced by Dan Norris, who had been a junior minister in the Brown government and was Mayor of the West of England.
As ever, Rees-Mogg was courtesy itself on the night offering warmest congratulations to Norris while his opponent was less than generous saying he had got ‘’Mogg-xit done.’’ But the win for Labour had nothing to do with Starmer and his lies about tax but everything to do with Nigel Farage’s Reform.
Rees-Mogg was beaten into second place by 5,319 votes but it was the Reform candidate who did the damage taking 14.5% of the vote, a painful 7,424 local people who, I suspect, would in the past have given their cross to him.
The truth is Rees-Mogg still misses the cut and thrust of politics and most evenings, when not appearing on the telly can be found on the rubber chicken circuit talking to gloomy Conservative dinners about how he sees the future of the party.
His chance of being given a by-election seat by the new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch seemed remote.
She never suggested he might pop in for a cuppa or through her ‘’people’’ said he was in her thoughts about potentially going to the Lords (he might well have turned that down) and then become a shadow cabinet something.
That Kemi silence would be a reassuring sign to the right of the party that they did have some heavyweights welcome at the Tory top table and able to compete with Farage. He knew he was out in the cold. Politics is a rough old trade and when you’re out you’re out. No prizes for finishing second.
On Saturday that scenario changed dramatically. Avon and Somerset police announced that Dan Norris had been arrested and bailed on suspicion of rape and child sex offences. Further, he was also being quizzed about misconduct in public office.
Norris, 65, a single man, was said by his website to have trained with the NSPCC and worked as a teacher and child protection officer.
The majority of the allegations relate to the early 2000s but the alleged offence of rape came from the 2020s. The Labour party then announced he had been suspended and had the party whip removed. They didn’t have much choice.
I am working on the assumption that Norris’s political career is over and he will stand down sooner or later.
And that is where, remarkably, the sunlit uplands of North East Somerset beckon once again for Rees-Mogg. And this time he will have choice. Does he stay with the Conservatives or does he move to what would be his more natural home, Reform?
Jacob Rees Mogg lost his MP seat in the July election
GB News
The reality is that there a following wind with Reform, most polls have them at around 26%, either neck and neck or a couple of points ahead of the Tories. But it won’t only be disgruntled Tories who would head to Reform but also Labour voters who gave them a chance last year and feel they were massively let down.
My bet is that Reform will skate home. I’m sure Farage would have Rees-Mogg as his candidate in a heartbeat. Badenoch will suddenly have discovered Rees-Mogg’s number and will start calling furiously to explain how much she has always loved him and attempting to haul him on board.
At one moment on July 5, 2024 (the result came in at 2.30am) Rees-Mogg must have felt totally unloved and unwanted and today, ten months later, there’s a queue of suitors outside his door.
My advice is that he must take the Farage call and say a big yes. It will give him a minimum of another eight years in politics (the by-election and the 2029 General Election) and he will be in a party whose policies more accurately reflect his own.
Were he, through his natural loyalty, to plump for the Tories he would lose the by-election and then either not want to run in the General Election or the constituency not want him. His political career would be over.
Clearly a difficult decision for Jacob. But there’s an obvious one.
