Leave voter earthquake shows why Tories are terrified of a Farage return
It isn't hard to see why some Conservatives are terrified of a Farage return.
PA
The latest research demonstrates why talk of Nigel Farage's return to frontline politics continues to dominate the debate
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Will he or won't he? Reform UK Leader Richard Tice's recent press conference, where the party took aim at Keir Starmer's Labour Party as well as the Tories, triggered huge speculation as to whether Nigel Farage would appear.
In the end he didn't. But speculation as to his next moves continue to swirl.
That isn't surprising. Nigel Farage's GB News show is agenda-leading, his jungle adventure a success and he has of course led different political parties to winning two national elections.
So when you dial down into the research figures, they confirm that a Farage return would have a major impact on British politics.
Richard Tice has overseen a remarkable rise that has already led to speculation as to his party's impact at the next General Election.
The Wellingborough by-election will be a key test for Reform. The party's Joint Deputy Leader Ben Habib is standing and is clearly aiming to make his mark with an upset win.
But YouGov's data demonstrates why some Conservatives are so petrified of Nigel Farage playing an active leading role for Reform.
Their polling shows that with Richard Tice leading Reform, the party is on 11 per cent with Labour on 43 per cent and and the Tories down to 22 per cent.
But when they asked the same question with Farage leading Reform, the numbers are more dramatic.
They boost Reform up to 14 per cent nationally, only 7 points behind the Tories on 21 per cent.
Just to show the scale of switching that could occur if this was to play out, consider these breakdowns.
A Farage-led party would see a whopping 29` per cent of those who voted Tory in 2019 backing Reform instead. 13 per cent would switch to Labour and 5 per cent to the Liberal Democrats, meaning fewer than half (47per cent) of those who voted Conservative in 2019 would do so again.
Meanwhile 30 per cent of Leave voters would back Reform UK under these circumstances as well, narrowly behind the 34 per cent of Brexit voters who would vote Tory with 23 per cent backing Labour.
That would be an astonishing turnaround from 2019 when the Conservatives, thanks to Brexit Party candidates being stood down, largely had Leave voters backing Boris Johnson's campaign.
So as the speculation continues, don't be surprised if you see more sweating and fretting over Reform's next moves.
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