You wont often find me quoting Gilbert and Sullivan – I’m more of a Gilbert O’Sullivan man – but some lines from their Iolanthe keep running through my head.
“That every boy and every gal. That’s born into this world aliveIs either a little Liberal Or else a little Conservative”
Woolworths closed in the early 00s.
GB News
That was indeed the position in late Victorian times – you were one or the other. No other parties existed.
Slowly the glaciers shifted and Labour emerged at the turn of the century and gradually supplanted the Liberals but as recently as the 1950s almost 100% of all votes cast at general elections were for Labour, Tories or a minuscule Liberal rump who survived on the Celtic fringes or by an electoral pact with the Tories who stood aside from seats to allow a Liberal win and, in turn, the Liberals allowed the same privilege to the Tories.
Well – that was then and this is now.Parliament today is adorned with Labour, Tories, Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists, Reform UK, Greens, Welsh Nationalists, Ulster Unionists, Social Democratic and Labour members, Democratic Unionists, and a right old spread of independent – often pro Palestine – politicians.
Where once a poll card would list two or three candidates at most you can now confidentially expect to see up to ten potential Members in your constituency.Lazy thinking assumes that Reform UK and the Tories will fight like cats in a sack and a relaxed Labour party can stroll nonchalantly to victory as the divided opposition turns its artillery on themselves instead of the opposition.Suere, there may be some loss to the Greens and even the LibDems but the big story will be division on the right and centre right and a crushing victory for the team in red.
Anyone who believes this is simply not looking at the results of recent council byelections, the polls or – more importantly in my opinion – the voices of the ordinary people down the Dog and Duck.We are now truly in the era of Pick”n”Mix politics.
Time was when you voted for the party you had the most belief in, or least disliked, rather than one to which you wholly subscribed.
There may be some deep dyed Tories and bred in the bone Labourites and even committed yellow perils in the more affluent part of Surrey but the vast body of the electorate are no longer one-party people with their allegiances baked in.
All the polling evidence points to a severing of the bonds that tied the voter to his or her party for life.
Floating voting is now much more the norm and tactical voting the outrider of this phenonomen.It is entirely reasonable to see Labour battered on several different fronts.Outside London the south east could easily see the Liberal Democrats and Tories win majorities.
In the midlands there could be a rise of Independents, in the north Reform UK looks stronger by the day, in Scotland a resurgent SNP sees “Braveheart” as a documentary rather than fiction and in Wales Reform UK is holding all the cards.
We’ll leave Northern Ireland for a deeper discussion on another day.This all rather suggests a nightmare scenario with an utterly divided Commons unable to form a stable government and the sordid backstairs bickering of cynical coalition creation the only option.Just look at the current situation in Germany and in Ireland.
With no part holding a majority, a cobbled together coalition that could collapse at any moment like a flat pack wardrobe seeks stable leadership.In Ireland this has resulted in a rotating leadership that is fairly successful, in Germany sworn enemies now sit together with gritted teeth.
The rise of Reform UK is actually a threat to Labour. That is obvious.What it means for the future shape of the House of Commons is yet to be seen, Fasten your seatbelt – this is going to be a bumpy ride.
