"By resigning on Boris, Rishi Sunak enraged Conservative members and supporters setting up his defeat in the 2022 Leadership contest," says Kevin Foster
At the end of the famous story Dr Faustus suddenly comprehends the dreadful mistake he has made and the high price he must now pay.
Prior to being dragged away to eternal damnation, he realises what could have been his reward in heaven if he had stuck the path of righteous study, rather than do a deal with Mephistopheles for the powers of hell to deliver his earthly desires.
Thankfully for Rishi Sunak a future in California will not be anything like the damnation of Faustus, but he may well find himself recalling the legendary tale at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham this week.
Whilst everyone will be polite, laugh at his jokes and wish him all the best, Rishi Sunak knows it is over. He is still in office, but without any power or influence, the absence of a keynote speaking slot epitomising the lack of interest in his thoughts, with the Member’s Reception he is hosting likely to see as many people turn up for the drink as the chance for a selfie. The four leadership candidates now being the future of the party.
Yet there is a very different future which could have been his, had he not outed the man who gave him his biggest chance: Boris Johnson. When Boris made him Chancellor in 2020, after Sajid Javid resigned, it was seen as a massive promotion, with those of us more sceptical of Mr Sunak’s skill set giving him a chance as well.
The early times were good, and he made himself popular during Covid with decisive intervention packages, prompting talk about him being the next Prime Minister as his and the party’s poll ratings soared. That is where things went wrong.
Whoever convinced or agreed with Rishi Sunak it would be a good idea to plot against Boris Johnson, was the political version of Mephistopheles. Whatever tactics used: playing to vanity, flattering with praise, highlighting the prospect of high rewards for him and his mates showered from Number 10, the ultimate outcome was disastrous.
By resigning on Boris, Rishi Sunak enraged Conservative members and supporters setting up his defeat in the 2022 Leadership contest. This act also laid the ground for the Reform surge in the General Election, the result of which saw his reputation left in tatters as his support plunged.
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Now let’s imagine what might have happened had he said no. If he rejected all advances with a clear statement he was staying loyal, even if he harboured private doubts about whether Boris could win again.
General Election 2024 might have seen Boris pull off a great result, seeing Chancellor Sunak able to take his share of the credit for a 1992 style surprise win, cementing his future. A much narrower defeat than the one suffered on July 4, would have left the party looking for a fresh start, but knowing someone must be ready to be PM next time. Who better than the fresh-faced and loyal Chancellor?
This would have been Mr Sunak’s chance to spend the next five years building up an alternative to what already looks like a Government more at the end of its term than the beginning. Early leadership mistakes made from the comfort of opposition, a chance to work on a clear vision, rather than be remembered for a King’s Speech about pedicabs.
Birmingham 2024 could have been the conference where Mr Sunak claimed the Tory crown for a decade or more. Instead, it’s the one where he will learn the price of betraying Boris was very high.
