'Jenrick and Badenoch face the same problem of only having the support of one-third of their MPs,' says Sir Philip Davies
The Conservative leadership election is turning out to be one of the most enthralling in history - not least due to James Cleverly going from top of the poll of MPs to being eliminated by those very same MPs within 24 hours.
There seems little doubt that misguided tactical voting played its part in this, but I don’t buy the suggestion that James Cleverly himself or anyone on his campaign team was responsible for this.
It seems most likely that some of the MPs who would have voted for James - certain their man was heading for the final run-off - decided to freelance and take the opportunity to try to eliminate their least favourite candidate and made a huge error.
In fact, this contest has many similarities with the leadership contest of 2001. Back then there was a Labour Government with an unassailable majority in the House of Commons, and - as with this contest - there were allegations of tactical voting and very little to choose between the levels of support amongst MPs of the final three candidates.
In 2001, Ken Clarke topped the final ballot with 59 votes from MPs, and Iain Duncan Smith joined him in the final run-off with 54 votes, edging out Michael Portillo with 53 votes. Iain Duncan Smith went on to win the leadership election amongst Party members - largely because he wasn’t Ken Clarke whose pro-EU stance was anathema to most Tory members.
However, only having the support of a third of MPs proved fatal to IDS whose leadership was brought to a premature end just two years later when he lost a vote of confidence.
Whether Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick wins this contest, they will face the same problem of only having the support of one-third of their MPs, and that is a precarious position for any Party leader in Parliament. Jeremy Corbyn, Ed Miliband and Liz Truss all suffered the same problems as IDS as leaders of their Party with the support of a minority of their MPs. It will be difficult for the new Conservative leader not to suffer a similar fate.
Kemi’s reputation for being brusque and rubbing up people the wrong way will not help her keep those MPs who didn’t support her on board unless she shows a willingness to show a more sensitive side to MPs.
Robert’s uncompromising position on immigration and his determination to leave the ECHR will also provide a flashpoint with those Conservative MPs who do not share his hardline approach.
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Whoever wins, they will face a challenge to keep their Parliamentary Party on board, but they may well be helped by the sensible suggestion from 1922 Committee Chairman Bob Blackman to increase the number of letters requesting a vote of no confidence in the leader to trigger such an election.
Ultimately, whatever the outcome, Conservative MPs need to learn some discipline, and not panic when things are not going well. Constantly changing leader is as successful a strategy in politics as it is in football when clubs constantly sack their manager.
Success in local elections, by-elections and opinion polls will ultimately be the test by which the new leader is judged and will determine whether they continue as leader until the next General Election.
It would be a brave person who would wager a huge amount on the winner of the contest leading the Conservative Party into the next General Election, but it is vital for the Tories that they do.
