America is broken - Britain can be the new leader of the free world if Rishi Sunak stops dithering and steps up NOW, says Erbil Gunasti
Reuters
The United States has lost its influence and soft power. The planet needs a mature, independent western nation to take the lead
When Joe Biden sought election in the 2020 United States presidential election, he made a terrible mistake.
In a bid to try and lure votes from various minority communities across America he called Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan an “autocrat” and said the US should support his unelected opponents.
It was a profound strategic error. Three years later, Erdogan has just secured another half-decade in charge of a country that has growing geo-political importance, a population of 85 million, a surging economy and an increasing role on the world stage.
Turkey is the bridge between the west, including the United States and Europe, and the fast-rising powers of the east.
The 46th President of the United States alienated it at just the wrong time. Ankara boasts the second largest military force in NATO and is finding its feet and developing a fast-moving, modern, technology-driven economy.
It has a very bright future. Very little of this matters to Joe Biden, who is intent on relentlessly pushing his unthinking globalist agenda.
It wasn’t Donald Trump who made disastrous US foreign policy decisions in Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2021. Nor was it Trump who let relations with Russia deteriorate to the point where Vladimir Putin felt cornered and compelled to launch his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine.
Just as in 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea, a driving factor was a globalist US president – then Barack Obama – obstinately driving a one-world agenda from the Oval Office.
It is this very obsession that will, inevitably, lead to Biden’s downfall. Just like Romanos IV Diogenes, the Byzantine general determined to halt the decline of his nation’s once great empire, he will be another Commander-in-Chief unable to recover from the countless strategic mistakes he has made.
Romanos was overthrown, blinded and sent to die in a monastery. Biden’s downfall will, of course, be more gentle, but it won’t feel like it when he’s destroyed at the ballot box next November.
All of which brings us to Britain and why a once-in-a-generation opportunity now lies in wait for Rishi Sunak, if he is only brave enough to seize it.
America is rife with domestic problems but Joe Biden has lost a huge amount of goodwill in the international community. Kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers around the globe expect the leader of the planet’s sole superpower to be a calm, thoughtful, uniting force. Instead, Biden has consistently left a huge vacuum where his leadership should be and antagonised or shunned those, particularly in the east, whom he should be seeking to reach.
All of western civilisation is suffering from this incompetence and there will be consequences, primarily for the United States of America, to bear.
If the US is now incapable – or unwilling – to fill the global leadership role it assumed throughout the twentieth century, then the international system will find a logical solution: Another power to fill the vacuum.
In light of how the presidential election in Turkey turned out on 28 May 2023 – and the need for east and west to talk calmly and move forward logically in the wake of the Ukraine war, I believe this void can be best filled by the UK.
Aside from the lame duck in the White House, the globalist EU is increasingly divided and obsessed with internal issues. It has little appetite to step-up and even if it tried it would likely not be received well in Asia.
No, a mature, independent western nation needs to take the lead if the world is to genuinely move forward from here.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been re-elected for another five years
Reuters
Timing is important. If the UK doesn’t capitalise on this moment, it will let a huge, historic opportunity pass it by.
The prize is huge: As Britain struggles to define itself and its purpose in the post-Brexit era, what better role than becoming the fulcrum of the entire international community at such a critical moment in the world’s history?
The nascent relationship with Erdogan is key. Just as China, Russia and other emerging nations increasingly look to Turkey as a bridge to the west, the UK can use rapidly improving relations with Ankara to reach eastwards.
The countries have much in common. Like Turkey, Britain sits outside the EU. The former remains in the bloc’s customs union, meaning London can set hugely ambitious trade targets with Ankara, outside of any interference from Brussels. The two nations are free to trade with one another as they wish.
Already £25billion worth of free trade flows between Turkey and the UK. This could easily surpass the £60billion Ankara currently achieves with Moscow, with resolve and determination on both sides.
Both could steal a mutually-beneficial march on their sleeping rivals: The US is dragging its feet on a trade deal with the UK – despite the meaningless Atlantic Declaration – and the EU is determined to eternally punish Britain for Brexit.
Turkey, despite it’s fast-growing economy and population, has limited free trade deals in place and no formal arrangement at all with the United States.
One key area of growth could be collaboration on the development, manufacture and sales of military equipment. In BAE Systems, Britain boasts one of the biggest and most advanced defence contractors in the world, but the UK has a plethora of similar, smaller companies that can benefit from collaboration with Turkey.
The latter, meanwhile, recently unveiled a range of home-grown high-tech military products, including new generation drones, aircraft, helicopters, missiles, armored land vehicles, radars, lasers, naval platforms, and space technologies. And there’s a lot more coming down the pipeline as Ankara ploughs cash into developing cutting-edge tech.
Already 200 Brits are involved with the manufacture of the Turkish F-35 fighter aircraft. The fifth-generation plane is now projected to fly this year and perhaps enter into mass production even before 2028.
US President Joe Biden has let his country and the world down
Reuters
Britain can benefit tremendously from this opportunity, almost immediately, if Sunak is prepared to stop dithering, be bold and gamble on reaching out and developing relations.
The opportunity isn’t limited to defence. Britain has nuclear power technology that Turkey desperately needs, a services industry which would surely boom in the country and there’s enormous potential to do more in agriculture, natural gas, tourism, heavy industrials and even deep sea energy exploration.
The personal relations are very promising. Ben Wallace, Britain’s Defence Secretary, enjoys a brilliant rapport with his Turkish counterparts and is both trusted and well-liked within the Turkish government, a genuine rarity among senior western ministers.
Erdogan has appointed the Anglophile – and British passport holder - Mehmet Simsek as finance minister. The 56-year-old attended the University of Exeter and worked in the City of London for nearly a decade. He is calm, mature, reasonable…and considers himself both British and Turkish.
Erdogan has been clear: He wants his economic team, led by Simsek, to have freedom to drive economic growth, bring inflation down, and do big, bold deals to drive Turkish GDP further, faster.
Rishi Sunak has a huge opportunity to seize the moment and make Britain the dominant leader on the world stage
PA
Britain can also be smart and use Turkey as a strategic partner, as the gateway to the east for trade, as well as influence.
Turkish exports stand at $250 billion and are set to at least to double in the next five to 10 years.The country has been investing hugely in manufacturing and controls 75 percent of the world's boron reserves.
It is already working closely with China on rare earth minerals - critical to the development of future technology. The second biggest reserve of rare earth minerals in the world lies in Eskisehir in northwestern Turkey, where 10 of the 17 top rare minerals are to be found in plentiful quantities.
Turkey has already rejected aggressive overtures from France to work together in Eskisehir – Erdogan feels the same way about Emanuel Macron as he does about Joe Biden…he has no desire to work with him.
There are huge gains for Britain, both in Turkey and through it further east to China, Russia, Pakistan and beyond, if Sunak chooses to be bold, sees the future already visible on the horizon and seizes it.
A mutually beneficial trade and security relationship based on a new trust and understanding, helping Britain to take its rightful place at the beating heart of the free world.
The time is now. The clock is ticking. Your move, Sunak.
* Erbil Gunasti is an American-based TV producer and author of the book GameChanger. He also runs the popular Fighting For One America blog