Donald Trump's "carrot and stick" approach to Vladimir Putin could force him to the negotiating table, a top British defence chief has claimed.
Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell's prediction comes more than 1000 days into Russia's bloody invasion of Ukraine.
The battlefield has evolved into a war of attrition as the lines have frozen and Russia has consolidated its gains.
With Ukrainian soldiers fighting on many fronts, morale is ebbing. President Joe Biden has finally permitted Ukraine's use of long-range missiles, but critics feel his administration has been overly cautious, fearing escalation with Russia to the point of paralysis.
That could all change once Trump returns to the Oval Office, reckons Bell, who served 32 years in the RAF and commanded 1 (Fighter) Squadron and the Harrier Force,
Trump's decisive win on November 5 rattled European leaders, who fear he will be seduced by the American First wing of the Republican Party.
This group tends to prioritise the domestic agenda over sending billions to Ukraine and is demanding Uncle Sam turns off the taps.
However, Bell has a different reading of what might happen once Trump is back in the White House.
Critics feel Biden has been overly cautious in Ukraine and Trump will get things done
REUTERSAs the former defence chief points out, Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
This no-nonsense approach, combined with Trump's unpredictability, could break the current stalemate, Bell reckons.
"It's not unreasonable that we might be heading to a point at which there is some form of negotiation to get the war to an end. Trump cannot impose a ceasefire. He could probably coerce Zelensky, but he can't coerce Putin, who can do what he wants. So Trump will have to use a bit of a carrot and stick with him," he told GB News.
Bell envisions this playing out in three "tough" stages.
Firstly, Trump might threaten to send more weapons to Ukraine.
Secondly, he might threaten to impose a no-fly zone over the war-torn country.
Thirdly, when it comes to the carrot, he might promise to lift the sanctions on Russia in exchange for a peace deal, Bell suggests.
As a businessman, Trump is well-versed in these quid pro quo negotiations, he notes.
Such a clear "statement of intent" has been missing from the West since the start of the war, and this has played to Putin's advantage, Bell believes.
He cites Trump's first term in office as evidence of how Trump's bluster often delivered results.
Trump frequently criticised NATO countries for not meeting the guideline of spending two per cent of their GDP on defense.
His rhetoric was often direct and confrontational, labelling countries as "delinquent" if they did not meet this target.
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As a businessman, Trump is well-versed in quid pro quo negotiations
ReutersAs a result of his browbeating, there was an increase in the number of countries meeting or moving towards the two per cent GDP target.
By 2020, NATO reported that defence spending by European allies and Canada increased by about $130 billion from 2016 to 2020.
Trump has already got tough on America's foes ahead of his presidency, telling Iran last month that it will be blown "to smithereens" if the Islamic Republic is involved in the harming of a US White House candidate or ex-president.
Bell is not all in on the incoming president, highlighting how his lack of diplomacy can be infuriating.
But "Trump is a breath of fresh air. He's going to be scary as hell. There'll be unintended consequences", he told GB News.
