Office for National Statistics (ONS) data forecasts that the UK population will swell by almost five million people over the next seven years to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032.
The ONS projects that net migration - the difference between the number of people entering a country (immigrants) and the number of people leaving - will be the primary driver of this population boom.
The statistical body also provides a projection further into the future, covering the 25 years between mid-2022 and mid-2047, for which the total projected growth of the UK population is 8.9 million, a jump of 13.2 per cent.
The ONS projections sent shockwaves through Westminster, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage bemoaning the strain it will place on Britain's already stretched public services. For his part, Prime Minister Keir Starmer ruled out setting an "arbitrary" cap to cut "staggeringly high" migration levels.
As politicians lock horns over the direction of the country, here are five charts that indicate Britain is already failing its population.
Overall crime is on the rise in the UK as the number of police officers has fallen in recent years
Statista
The chart above shows the crime rate per 1,000 population in the United Kingdom from 2002/03 to 2023/24, by jurisdiction.
The crime rate in the United Kingdom was highest in England and Wales in 2023/24, at 89.7 crimes per 1,000 people, compared with Scotland which had 55 crimes per 1,000 population and Northern Ireland, at 52.3 crimes per 1,000 people.
Although crime declined quite significantly between 2002/03 and 2013/14, this trend has been reversed in subsequent years, with overall crime on the rise.
At the same time, there are fewer bobbies on the beat.
After reaching a high of 172,000 officers in 2010, the number of police officers in the UK fell to just 150,000 officers by 2017, separate Statista data shows.
Although that trend has reversed since this point, there are still approximately 1,000 fewer police officers in 2023 than there were in 2010.
Then there's the backlog of cases caused by the pandemic.
Rapid population growth will only compound these problems.
NHS waiting lists have continued to spiral since the pandemic
BMA
Demand for hospital treatment has long outstripped capacity on the NHS, but the COVID-19 pandemic compounded these problems, with significant backlogs resulting in even longer waits for patients than ever before.
As the chart above shows, there were already 4.57 million cases on a waiting list for consultant-led care before the pandemic in February 2020.
At the beginning of the pandemic, the combination of suspension of non-urgent services and changes to individuals’ behaviour meant that the number of people joining the waiting list initially dropped.
However, this has since been rising - and despite some improvements earlier in the year, waiting times remain far higher than pre-Covid.
The latest Referral to Treatment (RTT) figures for November 2024 show:
In January 2025 the government set a target of 65 per cent of patients meeting the 18-week standard for elective treatment by March 2026.
Starmer announced a raft of plans to achieve this target, including expanding the network of community diagnostic centres and surgical hubs to enable more treatment outside of hospitals.
However, it's unclear how he will square this with a population boom.
Property prices have long outpaced wages
ONS
Britain has a housing crisis, by every metric.
With demand far outstripping supply, renting and buying costs have skyrocketed.
A population explosion will only make the market hotter.
The Bank of England's chief economist, Huw Pill, noted as much as last year, saying: “The population is growing. To some extent, the rents are really a reflection of supply and demand factors [and] reflect things that aren’t to do with monetary policy.”
Recent ONS data also shows that net migration has outpaced the number of new dwellings, suggesting rapid population growth will compound the problem.
Bloomberg found that in some areas of the country, just one home was built for every 10 additional people added to the population between 2011 and 2021.As the graph above also shows, house prices have long outpaced wages as successive governments have failed to rev up Britain's economy.
In 1997, the average house price was approximately 3.6 times the average annual gross full-time earnings. By 2016, this ratio had more than doubled to 7.6 times the average salary.
This lopsidedness is particularly burdensome for those seeking large home loans. In 2021, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.34 per cent, as reported by Moneyfacts.
With this rate, monthly repayments on a £500,000 mortgage would have been £2,204. However, if that same loan were taken out today at a rate of 5.5 per cent, the monthly cost would jump to £3,070.
Experts argue that the UK's restrictive planning system is another significant factor.
Policies limiting land availability and building permissions have led to a dramatic increase in housing prices relative to incomes.
Paul Cheshire, professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics, sounded the alarm last year, telling The Telegraph: “If you want to solve the housing affordability crisis, you need to change the things that are causing supply to be so radically constipated.”
He cited the "dysfunctional" planning system as the chief culprit.
The UK government's expenditure on benefits has also increased over time, with the largest increase in 2020/21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic
ChatGPT
The welfare state continues to choke economic growth in Britain. At any one time, the DWP is making benefit and pension payments to over 20 million people.
The UK government's expenditure on benefits has also increased over time, with the largest increase in 2020/21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic (see chart above).
In 2023/24 the UK government spent approximately 258.4billion on benefits alone.
Thanks to higher-than-anticipated spending on Universal Credit and disability benefits, the welfare cap for the fiscal year 2024-25 is expected to be breached by a whopping £8.6billion, the Government confirmed this week.
The welfare cap was introduced in 2014 as a policy to limit the total amount the government spends on certain welfare benefits. It was meant to control public spending on social security, aiming for fiscal discipline.
A substantial part of the welfare pot also goes into social housing.
In 2023/24 the Government spent approximately 17.2billion on housing support.
The projected population boom will complicate efforts to cut back on social welfare spending.
Businesses across all main sectors including manufacturing, services and retail forecast a decline in January
ONS
Rachel Reeves says getting people into work is key to unlocking growth, but it's unclear what jobs the additional five million people will find once they arrive here as business chiefs have warned they will have to ramp up job cuts as fears of a recession mount.
Businesses across all main sectors including manufacturing, services and retail forecast a decline in January, having fallen over the previous three-month period (see chart above).
A recent survey indicates that companies are cutting jobs at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, excluding the pandemic period, following the announcement of these tax increases.
Retailers have expressed fears that Reeves' tax hikes will force them to raise prices and reduce their workforce.
Tesco has already taken preemptive action, announcing on Wednesday that it will cut 400 roles across its stores as it plans to simplify its business.
The Autumn budget introduced a £25billion rise in employer National Insurance contributions, increasing the rate from 13.8 per cent to 15 per cent and lowering the salary threshold at which employers start paying the tax.
By increasing the NI rate, businesses will face a higher cost for every employee they hire.
For many businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), this increase in costs can significantly affect their profit margins.
When employers face higher costs, they may respond by reducing their workforce to maintain financial stability.
