The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas) has urged students to ready a plan B in case they miss their first choice university, with harsher grading set to trigger a scramble for limited clearing spaces.
A return to pre-pandemic A level grading is predicted to award 59,154 fewer A* and 35,505 fewer A grades, according to Professor Alan Smithers, director of education at the University of Buckingham.
This reduction is set to have an impact on the number of students meeting the conditions on their university offer, with students that do not make their grades entering clearing.
Clare Marchant, chief executive of Ucas, said: “It’s getting more competitive which means places are filled up quicker and therefore there are slightly less in clearing and the competitive stuff that is in clearing is likely to go faster.”
Pupils with their A-level results at Norwich School on August 18, 2022.
PA
She added: “My advice to students, our advice at Ucas, is to be pretty quick off the mark if that’s what you’re looking for.”
Ucas informed GB News that there has been a “gradual decline in the number of clearing course available,” with around 3,500 fewer courses in 2022 compared to 2019.
A spokesperson for Ucas said: “We expect this may be the case again this year as competition for places intensifies as part of our forecasts.”
They added: “Ahead of results day, students can place themselves in the strongest possible position by thinking ahead and putting together a Plan B.
“Students can already start researching all their options via the UCAS Hub and on results day they can add a clearing choice from 1pm.”
Students check their A-level results at Worcester Sixth Form College.
PA
As of Wednesday, fifteen of the 24 elite Russell Group universities had clearing vacancies on courses for English residents, amounting to 2,2021 courses between them, according to PA news agency.
A similar analysis last year showed 17 of the 24 Russell Group universities had vacancies on courses for English residents, which came to 2,358 courses in total.
A spokesperson for the University of Manchester, which currently has no courses on Ucas’ clearing site, said: “If we do go into clearing, it is likely to be for a limited number of places on a small number of programmes.”
Likewise, University College London (UCL) does not have any vacancies in clearing “due to high demand for places”, but this is being kept “under review”.
The University of Liverpool also has no courses listed on Ucas’ clearing site and expected to offer places to a “small number of high-quality candidates” in clearing.
Friends (from left) Katie McCrory, Atlanta Watson, Laura Sharp and Nicole Babb, react after opening their A-level results at Lagan College, Belfast on August 18, 2022.
PA
Just two courses are listed by the University of Exeter and four at St George’s, University of London.
A spokesman for the Russell Group said: “The confirmation from Ofqual that grade distributions will return to 2019 levels has given universities more confidence in making offers compared to last year, which may mean universities have less flexibility to offer courses in clearing in some subjects.
“However, most Russell Group universities have courses available in clearing this year, across a range of subjects, as they have done in past years and more courses will become available after results day.”
UCAS projects that there could be up to a million higher education applicants in a single year in 2030, up from 767,000 in 2022.
According to ONS forecasting, the population of 18-year-olds in the UK is set to increase by 180,000 from 2020 to some 900,000 in 2030.
Adding to this, the OECD predicts the number of internationally mobile students to rise from 5.6million in 2000 to around 9million in 2030.
By 2030, UCAS projections show the most likely scenario is a 30% more higher education applicants relative to 2022, with the most pessimistic scenario seeing growth of 19.5% and the most optimistic showing 41%.
