Scottish independence: SNP warned of mass job losses if Scotland leaves UK

Scottish independence would result in tens of thousands of people losing their jobs and would intensify pressure on a struggling welfare system, according to Former Brexit Party MEP Brian Monteith.

Mr Monteith said: “The SNP has no fiscal, currency or trade policies for a lonely Scotland to make ends meet and last week’s trade figures pointed to scenes scarier than any Halloween movie.”

Writing in the Scotsman, the Former Brexit Party MEP added: ”It cannot be said often enough that no central economic case for a Scotland divorced from the country we have built over 300 years of political union currently exists, not in terms of financing the massive fiscal deficit nor the challenge of finding a currency that does not cause wholesale pain, if not ruin, to many Scottish families.

“Those are, however, only two of the insurmountable obstacles all but a few nationalists would rather not talk about – the other is how Scotland would earn a living to pay off the huge annual deficits and debt we have persistently voted for, and ensure whatever currency was used would not be absolutely worthless.”

First Minster Nicola Sturgeon during First Minster's Questions in the debating chamber of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. Picture date: Thursday October 7, 2021.
Fraser Bremner/Daily Mail

Given Scotland’s close links with the British economy, it was unclear what would happen to trade with the rest of the UK, nor how a likely shortfall would be made up by trade with other countries.

Scottish exports rose in 2019 by more than £3.5 billion, buoyed by trade with the rest of the UK, figures show.

Statistics published by the Scottish Government show exports of £35.1 billion outside the UK, an increase of £1.1 billion (3.4%) during that year. Trade with the rest of the UK totalled £52 billion, an increase of £2.5 billion (5%).

The increase to the rest of Britain was driven by a boost in electricity exports of around 33.6% (£1.8 billion), while the services sector accounted for a £725 million jump, the agricultural sector exported £1.1 billion – an increase of £230 million – while manufacturing exports dropped by £350 million. The rest of the UK accounted for 60% of the total exports of Scotland.

Referring to these figures, Mr Monteith said: “The fact is if Scotland were to put any friction between the exports of Scottish businesses to the remaining UK, then we could expect that trade to diminish. No answer has been given as to how this can be overcome.

“Given the domination of our trade by sales to the UK (mainly England), then even a drop of a few percentage points would see tens of thousands of people consigned to unemployment, becoming an additional burden on the benefit system of a Scotland already unable to say how it would pay its pensions or social benefits.”

This comes as former union boss Len McCluskey said Scottish Labour should support calls for a second referendum on independence, regardless of its position on the constitution.

The party has always been steadfastly against another vote, despite dissent from some MSPs.

But Mr McCluskey, who was the general secretary of Unite for a decade and a major figure in the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, said the SNP “have stolen the radical clothes of Scottish Labour”.

“We’ve been telling Labour in Scotland since 2007 – when a certain Nicola Sturgeon won a seat in Glasgow – to wake up and smell the coffee,” he said on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme.

“The reality is the SNP have stolen the radical clothes of Scottish Labour and Scottish Labour have lost the trust of ordinary working people.”

To win back that trust, the former union leader said: “They’re going to have to battle really strongly; in my opinion they should support a second referendum on independence, what they actually do when that referendum comes can still be debated.”