Vladimir Putin is no longer in charge of Russia and is being kept in power by powerful figures in organised crime and the intelligence services, according to defence expert Rear Admiral Chris Parry.
He told Stephen Dixon and Emily Carver on GB News Breakfast: “If we don't stand by Ukraine, you'll find that Poland and the Baltic states will be next. I suspect also that the regime that's clustered around Putin will want to have a sort of pressure point on Sweden and Finland for daring to join NATO as well.
“I don't think there is any possibility of people in Russia moving against Putin. He's got nearly 75%-80% support from his own people but I should stress I don't think it's Putin that's in power.
“There's a group of organised crime and ex-FSB notables who are around him who are actually putting him out in front. He is a puppet, he's not there in power anymore.”
In a discussion with Arlene Foster, he continued: “As far as the Russian people in Ukraine are concerned, I think you've got a situation where not a lot of Russian people think it's worth dying for.
“But one thing that I think really is a red line for the Russians is Crimea itself and Ukraine right now is putting a lot of pressure on Crimea with missile attacks, amphibious assaults and trying to isolate Crimea.
“The drive main is in the east, between the Donbas and Crimea itself, if they get a breakthrough to the Black Sea or Sea of Azov by Christmas before winter really sets in, then it's all over for the Russians.”
He added: “The defence that the Russians have is very deep, they’ve got three lines, one of which has been penetrated, huge numbers of landmines, artillery and aircraft.
“So I think we're going to see a stalemate over the Christmas period and then a renewal of the conflict in the New Year.
“I also think that we'll see some prospects of negotiations, because, frankly, Ukraine can't sustain this for a long time. The trouble is, Putin knows that and all he has to do is sit there and not get beaten.”
Watch the interview in full above.
Tune in to Breakfast with Stephen and Anne, Friday to Sunday from 6am, only on GB News.
