Reform set to become third biggest party in Wales - shock analysis

Reform secured 223,018 votes in Wales in the General Election, making them the third biggest party by vote share, but had no MPs elected. Their candidates came second in 13 constituencies.

Reform would win 17 seats in the Senedd if the election was held today, just nine seats behind Plaid Cymru- the second biggest party- and four more than the floundering Tories, according to recent data from Wales Online.

The analysis extracts the 2024 Westminster results across Wales and applies them to the upcoming Senedd elections in 2026, while accounting for changes to the voting system. It paints a bleak picture for Labour who would lose overall control of the Welsh parliament.

They currently hold 50 per cent of the Senedd’s seats, but Wales Online’s analysis suggests that it could fall to 40%, their lowest share since devolution began.

Labour has held power in the Celtic nation since devolution began in 1999, controlling areas like health and education for 25 years. But during that quarter century, Wales’ health service and schools have lagged behind England. NHS waiting lists are longer and school attainment is lower.

Add to that fury over Wales’ 20mph law and dismay at Vaughan Gething’s disastrous 78-day premiership, Labour’s grip over Wales is weakening.

It appears after many years of re-electing Labour, the Welsh electoratemay be deserting the party,with many heading toReform.

Speaking in September, Reform’s leader Nigel Farage said: “There's no question about it, Reform is a serious contender in those Welsh elections in two years.”

These figures might even underplay Reform’s chances at the next Senedd elections as Reform were unable to field a candidate in Blaenau Gwent in the General Election.

If they had, the number of Reform votes cast in the constituency would have translated to another seat in the Senedd at Labour’s expense.

If Labour did lose overall control, a coalition would be required to carry on ruling. In previous administrations Labour has relied on Plaid Cymru for this, but the two parties fell out in May 2024 over Vaughan Gething’s dodgy donations fiasco -for which he eventually resigned.

With Plaid Cymru, Reform and the Conservatives extremely unlikely to form a coalition, an election today would probably leave a minority Labour government in charge.

Commentators have been quick to highlight how recent changes to the Senedd (expanding to 96 members and adopting a more proportional voting system) were supposed to help Labour.

The ploy seems to have backfired though, and Labour may have inadvertently given Reform an easy path to the Senedd.