There is a 25 per cent chance of a “catastrophic” pandemic hitting the United Kingdom in the next five years, a new Cabinet Office document has warned.
The “reasonable worst-case scenario” warned some 840,00 people in Britain could die and half of the population are at risk of falling ill.
The threat, which was raised alongside a number of others, was flagged by the National Risk Register.
Potential dangers and mitigation measures were also identified by the Government.
A Nottingham City Council coronavirus information sign in Nottingham
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The latest update demonstrates how Whitehall believes a similar crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic remains eminently possible.
Artificial intelligence and Russia’s disruption of energy supplies was also highlighted in the report.
The last time the National Risk Register released its warning was in 2020, ahead of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden, who is running the United Kingdom while Rishi Sunak is on holiday in California, penned a foreword to the report.
Oliver DowdenPAHe wrote: “By focusing on our collective resilience, we can help the nation be more safe, more secure and, in turn, more prosperous.
“This National Risk Register plays a vital role in that process, allowing us to build towards an even brighter future.”
Dowden added: “This country has overcome countless challenges before, but I am determined to build on our national resilience so that we are prepared for whatever the future holds.
“To do that, we need to be more open than ever about the risks we face.
A Nottingham City Council coronavirus information sign in Nottingham
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“Government cannot tackle these challenges alone; due to our increasingly complex and interconnected world, all of society needs to work together to strengthen our defences and build a more resilient nation.”
The 200-page document, which was published on Wednesday, assessed different potential risks and the likelihood of them happening.
It has been suggested there is between a five and 25 per cent chance of a “catastrophic” pandemic occurring in the next five years.
The report claimed: “The pandemic may come in single or multiple waves.
An official in the Cabinet Office stressed to the Telegraph that the description was just a worst-case scenario and did not take into account mitigation from a possible vaccine
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“The wave number depends on the characteristics of the disease, public behaviour, and government intervention.
“The pandemic may lead to behaviour changes in the population depending on the nature of the disease and the Government’s response.
“The scenario assumes 50 per cent of the UK’s population fall ill during the whole course of the pandemic, with about 1.34 million people estimated to require hospital treatment, possibly resulting in up to 840,000 deaths.”
An official in the Cabinet Office stressed to the Telegraph that the description was just a worst-case scenario and did not take into account mitigation from a possible vaccine.
