The number of migrants crossing the Channel could hit 35,000 in 2024, leaked Border Force documents have revealed.
Officials have warned last year’s 36 per cent fall from 46,000 to below 30,000 will not be replicated.
An influx of migrants into mainland Europe will likely increase the number hoping to arrive on British shores.
The document, seen by The Telegraph, came as Rishi Sunak’s spokesman refused to set a deadline for stopping the boats.
Rishi Sunak (inset) and migrant boats
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Home Secretary James Cleverly appeared to differ with the Prime Minister as he stressed his target was to reduce crossings to zero this year.
The latest projections will likely heap more pressure on Sunak to deliver on his Rwanda plan.
Tory MPs on the Right of the party have been calling for tougher measures to block any legal challenges.
However, pivoting to the right could spark a backlash from the liberal-leaning One Nation caucus.
Home Office figures revealed on Tuesday that more than 33,000 migrants are liable to be deported to Rwanda.
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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak holds a press conference
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But the Border Force’s 35,000 projection for 2024 is the medium-case scenario.
The worst-case projection stands at 50,000, above the record-breaking 45,774 crossings in 2022.
A source said: “The concern is that there is a lag between someone arriving into Italy and someone reaching the UK. It takes months to get from Italy to the UK.
“We have improved our cooperation with the French but they have not improved their interception to a level where they can stop all the people.
“The macro outlook is very bleak. The French have not improved their performance enough, and we haven’t got the Rwandan deterrent as yet.”
Members of Royal National Lifeboat Institution help migrants to disembark from a Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI) lifeboat on the beach at Dungeness
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A source close to Cleverly added: “These are annual projections that, by dint of the hard work of the Government, Home Office officials and Border Force, and working in partnership arrangements with other countries, did not materialise last year.
“It is entirely right to project forward and look at all scenarios, including worst cases.
“But that is exactly how we plan and focus our attention on the best strategies for this year to ensure those scenarios do not come to pass, to keep driving down illegal migration and ultimately stop the boats.”
However, a spokesman for the Prime Minister stressed the pair were “united in wanting to stop the boats entirely”.
He added: “I’m not going to set out a deadline.”