The UK government is developing a "murder prediction" programme aimed at using personal data of individuals known to authorities to identify those most likely to commit murder.
Researchers are reportedly employing algorithms to analyse the data of thousands, including crime victims, in an effort to pinpoint individuals at the highest risk of committing violent offenses.
Initially called the "homicide prediction project," the programme's name has since been changed to "sharing data to improve risk assessment."
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) hopes the initiative will enhance public safety, but campaigners have criticised it as "chilling and dystopian."
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) hopes the initiative will enhance public safety, but campaigners have criticised it as 'chilling and dystopian'
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The project was uncovered by the pressure group Statewatch, with some details revealed through documents obtained via Freedom of Information requests.
The group claims that sensitive data - including information about domestic abuse and self-harm - will be used from people not convicted of any criminal offence.
Officials have denied this claim, insisting only data from people with at least one conviction has been used.
The MoJ stated the project will “review offender characteristics that increase the risk of committing homicide” and “explore alternative and innovative data science techniques to risk assessment of homicide”.
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A spokesman added that it would also “provide evidence towards improving risk assessment of serious crime, and ultimately contribute to protecting the public via better analysis”.
The scheme - which was commissioned by the PM’s office when the previous Conservative government was in power - is looking at crime data from various sources including the Probation Service and data from Greater Manchester Police (GMP) before 2015.
The information processed includes personal details such as names, dates of birth, gender, ethnicity, and a unique identifier from the police national computer.
Statewatch's assertion that data from innocent individuals and those who have approached the police for assistance will be used is based on a section of the data-sharing agreement between the MoJ and GMP.
One part of the agreement, labelled "type of personal data to be shared," specifies various criminal convictions, but also includes the age at which a person first appeared as a victim—such as in cases of domestic violence—and the age when they first interacted with the police.
Additionally, the agreement outlines the sharing of "special categories of personal data," which includes “health markers which are expected to have significant predictive power” such as information related to mental health, addiction, suicide risk, vulnerability, self-harm, and disability.
Researcher Sofia Lyall from Statewatch said: “The Ministry of Justice’s attempt to build this murder prediction system is the latest chilling and dystopian example of the government’s intent to develop so-called crime ‘prediction’ systems.
“Time and again, research shows that algorithmic systems for ‘predicting’ crime are inherently flawed.”
The information processed includes personal details such as names, dates of birth, gender, ethnicity, and a unique identifier from the police national computer (Stock Photo)
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She claimed that the data used from the UK’s “institutionally racist police and Home Office” would exacerbate structural discrimination in the legal system.
Lyall added: “Like other systems of its kind, it will code in bias towards racialised and low-income communities.
"Building an automated tool to profile people as violent criminals is deeply wrong, and using such sensitive data on mental health, addiction and disability is highly intrusive and alarming.”
The move has also drawn criticism from members of the Government, with Conservative MP David Davis writing on X: “I thought the film Minority Report was a warning, not an instruction manual.”
“The Ministry of Justice seems to think differently. Algorithms attempting to predict whether someone will become a murderer will likely lead to bias and discrimination.”
An MoJ spokesperson said:“This project is being conducted for research purposes only.
"It has been designed using existing data held by HM Prison and Probation Service and police forces on convicted offenders to help us better understand the risk of people on probation going on to commit serious violence. A report will be published in due course.”
