Channel migrant surge predicted after huge influx into southern Europe

But despite Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s claim that his Stop the Boats policies are working, sources have told GB News that the UK will soon see the arrival of some of the many thousands who entered Europe illegally this year.

“Many are still slowly working their way up towards Northern Europe, and a proportion will head to the northern French coast, with the aim of reaching the UK,” one source said.

WATCH: Mark White on Channel migration 

Winter storms have prevented any small boat crossings in the English Channel since 16 December, when a single boat managed to cross with 55 people on board.

The Home Secretary James Cleverly posted on the social media site X that the lull in crossings was the first time since 2018 that no migrant boats had managed the crossing over Christmas.

However, maritime experts in the Channel point to the fact that for large parts of the past year, weather conditions have been unpredictable, with northerly winds that have often made small boat crossings impassable.

They told GB News that a run of good weather would undoubtedly see a huge surge in attempted small boat crossings again.

One source, with intimate knowledge of the people smuggling operations in France said: "There are still thousands of migrants scattered across northern France, waiting for the right weather conditions, waiting to be told it's their turn to take a small boat to the UK."

GB News travelled to France in recent weeks, and saw some of the dozens of small camps in woodland and wasteland, particularly around Dunkirk and Calais.

One of the main migrant camps, along the rail tracks south of Dunkirk, had just been cleared by French police a week earlier.

But the migrants were already regrouping and erecting makeshift tents around that site.

According to sources, they will likely be joined by thousands of others in the months ahead, a proportion of the huge influx of migrants who arrived in southern Europe after crossing the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa.

GB News reported from Lampedusa in the Summer, where tens of thousands of migrants arrived in hundreds of small boats in the space of just a few weeks, overwhelming the tiny Italian island.

Lampedusa was one of the most visible manifestations of the migrant crisis gripping European Union nations, where there is still no satisfactory consensus within the EU on the best way of tackling the increasing numbers heading illegally into the continent.

Mike Jones, Executive Director of Migration Watch said that the dis functionality within the bloc, made tackling the illegal surge into the EU far more difficult.

“This is simply because Frontex, the organisation that’s responsible for patrolling the EU’s external borders, doesn’t have enough resources, doesn’t have enough boats, and there’s a lack of coordination between other European countries.

“There’s also an ideological divide within the EU itself.”

Rishi Sunak has said the UK is bucking the trend seen elsewhere in Europe when it comes to the flow of illegal immigrants across the Channel.

A key component of the UK government’s Stop the Boats strategy is its deal with the Rwandan government to process and settle asylum seekers in the East African nation.

Despite the conveyor belt of legal challenges, the British government and many Conservative MPs are convinced that sending asylum seekers to Rwanda will help smash the people smugglers’ business model.

Bury North Conservative MP James Daly said: “Those of us who’ve actually been over there to the beaches, and we’ve talked to the French authorities, the people who are dealing with the chaos in Northern France said that as part of the suite of immigration policies, a deterrent is needed.

“Why is Austria looking at this? Why is Germany looking at this? Why is the US looking at this? Why is Italy looking at this?

Because it is recognised in the world we live in, we have to have a deterrent.”

2024 will be a pivotal year for Rishi Sunak. He will have to go to the Country, trying to convince the electorate that his policies are key to controlling illegal migration.

A quick and positive decision on the Rwanda deal is needed in the courts.

But even then, if tens of thousands of migrants continue to arrive in Northern France, determined to reach the UK, persuading the voters those policies are working in practice could a be a tough sell.