State pension forecast explained as Britons could find their National Insurance contributions don't count

Rachael Griffin, tax and financial planning expert at Quilter said: "The Government has announced it will enhance the ‘Check your State Pension forecast’ service, making it easier for individuals to understand any gaps in their National Insurance record and make voluntary contributions where appropriate.

"This is a sensible move, particularly as people face greater complexity in securing their full State Pension entitlement, but again it highlights the growing need for individuals to engage actively with their financial planning rather than assuming everything will fall neatly into place."

A state pension forecast provides an estimate of how much state pension an individual is likely to receive, based on their National Insurance (NI) record.

It also shows the date they can start claiming and highlights any gaps in their NI contributions that could affect the final amount.

Getting a state pension forecast is a crucial first step for those concerned about their retirement income.

To receive the full state pension, individuals need 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions, or a minimum of 10 years for any state pension entitlement.

The forecast is a valuable tool for anyone planning their retirement, helping them identify whether they need to take action, such as making voluntary NI contributions, to boost their entitlement.

If there was a time when someone did not pay enough National Insurance contributions or get enough National Insurance credits to give them a qualifying year, they may find they have a gap on their National Insurance record.

For example, they may have been:

• living abroad
• working but with low earnings (£125 a week for 2025/26)
• not working and not claiming any benefits
• self-employed but not paying National Insurance contributions because of small profits

Achieving 35 years can be challenging for those who have taken time off to care for children or elderly relatives, or who have taken career breaks.

Purchasing NI credits allows individuals to "buy extra years," boosting the amount of state pension they receive. Britons can only claim back six years of NI credits.

Buying one additional qualifying year typically adds 1/35 of the full state pension rate, equating to just over £300 extra income annually.

Kirsty Anderson, retirement specialist at Quilter, says: "For individuals with multiple gaps in their NI records, the potential long-term benefits are significant. Even topping up a single year would be recouped within a few years of retirement."

Ross Lacey, director at Fairview Financial Management, adds: "In our experience, it’s worth everyone reviewing their projected state pension.

"If it seems unlikely they will reach the maximum entitlement, it is sensible to do some analysis and enquire about topping up or paying for partial years. Generally, it takes around three years of receiving your state pension to 'pay back' the cost of buying the extra years."

However, topping up is not suitable for everyone. Reasons not to purchase additional years could include being young and still working, being in poor health, or being eligible for Pension Credit, which may reduce the need for a full state pension.

Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at investment service Bestinvest, highlights that plugging gaps can be costly, so individuals should assess whether they actually need to buy back any missing years.

"This will depend on how many more years a person plans to work and whether they are eligible for NI tax credits that can automatically fill gaps — for example, those who have been sick, unemployed, or took time out to raise a family or care for elderly relatives," she explains.

Specified adult childcare credits, for instance, can be claimed for free if someone is caring for a family member and the parents are earning their own NI credits.

This often applies to grandparents who have retired but are not yet at state pension age and need to boost their future payments.