Tom Tugendhat doesn't rub up people the wrong way, unlike some other Tory candidates, but will the members vote for him and his 100,000 net migration pledge - analysis by Katherine Forster

During a wide-ranging speech centred around public service this afternoon in Central London, the Shadow Security Minister talked about “the elephant in the room, which is population growth, fuelled by migration”.

Though recognising the vital contribution many migrants make in public services (and through paying taxes), he said: “Migration strains the capital stock of the country: divide the same number of houses, roads, schools and hospitals by a larger population and, well, we can all do the maths.

"We need to have an honest conversation about population. Numbers matter.”

Numbers do matter. And that’s partly why the Conservatives were booted out of office.

We’d had 14 years of broken promises on migration. Years of Cameron and May promising to get net migration down “to the tens of thousands” while it hovered between 200,000 350,000.

A Brexit vote, in part to “take back control” and bring migration down. Instead, Boris Johnson’s system led to migration rocketing, as EU numbers plunged but migration from the rest of the world surged.

And then, exacerbated by war in Ukraine and China’s actions in Hong Kong, net migration peaked at an astonishing three quarters of a million under Rishi Sunak. Utterly unprecedented in our history.

The measures which Sunak brought in to get numbers down will take time to feed through, and now that Labour are in power, they’ll take credit.

Tugendhat went on to say: “Our current way of doing things has given us an economy that has to bring in more and more people from elsewhere while people who live here have fewer and fewer children.”

It’s certainly true we’re having fewer children. And, besides childcare, that’s partly because young people are delaying having families because housing is so expensive. Partly because of numbers. A vicious circle.

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I was given the first question for GB News. And asked him, frankly, why people would believe him given the Tories’ record.

And also, even if it’s possible, how they’d manage to staff the NHS, social care etc, when we can’t even do that properly now.

He admits: “It will take reform – to visa policy, to welfare, to workforce planning, skills and training policies”.

You can say that again. And of course it couldn’t happen overnight; four years is a number mooted, to give time for the many changes needed to make such a change achievable.

But he told me: “We simply cannot carry on with a low wage, high migration economy. It isn't sustainable for the United Kingdom, and it isn't sustainable for the world.”

I suspect many people will think “never going to happen”. They’re probably right. And, to his credit, Tugendhat was good in holding his hands up and admitting to the many things the Conservatives got wrong.

Tugendhat is fundamentally a One Nation Conservative, well respected and with a calm, understated manner. He doesn’t rub people up the wrong way, unlike some other candidates.

He believes he can unite a deeply divided party. He has the potential to naturally appeal to voters who left the Tories for the Lib Dems and Labour.

His speech began with thank yous: “Thank you to those who care for us and protect us. Thank you to those who teach us and defend us. Thank you to all those who feed and support us.”

He has a way with words. His speech in the Commons after the disgrace of our withdrawal from Afghanistan was powerful. And his military background is a strength.

But would the members choose him if he gets to the final two? After all, they are to the right of the parliamentary party and likely to veer that way again.

This 100,000 net migration pledge will help him appeal to them. And it’s bold.

It will also appeal to many voters, especially cross former Conservatives who peeled off to Reform or sat at home in disgust.

Is it possible? Will he get the chance to try?

Given Labour’s huge majority and current migration levels, it seems unlikely.

But then who would have thought when Johnson won that 80 seat majority that five years later the Conservatives would be decimated. Things can change, and fast.