A very real threat faces Britain and the rest of the West - we must confront it head on, says Tobias Ellwood

How different the world looks today. Such is the complexity of this new era of insecurity we’ve entered a more accurate maxim might be ‘It’s climate change, it’s AI, it’s Global disorder, it’s China – and yes it’s the economy, stupid.’

Not as slick as Clinton’s maxim but a better reflection of an ever more complex geo-political landscape, the demise in effectiveness and legitimacy of the West and the rise of authoritarian alliances pursuing competing agendas.

Over half the UK’s GDP is reliant on access to overseas markets. Yet influencing these international headwinds will get little mention in as the economy is debated over the coming months.

COVID, the war in Ukraine and now the Gaza/Israel conflict illustrate how troubles abroad send economic disruptions rippling across the globe. When container ships and oil tankers destined for the UK re-route around Africa (avoiding Houthi missiles in the Red Sea) prices of goods and energy rise at home.

Politicians and economists must shout louder about the symbiotic link between our economy and global security. The slow but inevitable collapse our Global Order will increasingly threaten our prosperity - unless our hard and soft power strengths are ungraded. But we fail to make the case and our defence posture remains unchanged.

2023 was the year of warnings: Putin, far from mollified, has now moved his country to a war footing; the Middle East back on fire - with Iran pushing the envelope of its proxy power; and China, openly forging its alternative global order vision and coercing increased support from across the Global South.

And not forgetting it was the hottest year on record reminding us that extreme weather patterns, food and water security and the hunt for rare minerals to run our batteries, all add to a bleak era of insecurity.

Sadly, such is the precarious state of our current global order, no single superpower, international alliance or global institution (ie the UN) has either the motivation or power to control events, put fires out and more widely alter the dangerous trajectory humanity is now on. By illustration, take events in Ukraine and Gaza.

Ukraine’s courage in thwarting Russia’s invasion has not been matched by Western talk to ‘do all that is necessary to secure victory.’ As Putin hoped – ‘Ukraine Fatigue’ is setting in with America now pausing its financial support for Kyiv.

In contrast Putin is surviving Western sanctions, his war-time economy now pummelling Ukraine with over 50,000 shells a day compared to Ukraine’s 7,000. Putin now commits a regular drum beat of war crimes in his mass targeting of cities across Ukraine knowing the West will do little to challenge him.

Similarly, three months into the Israel/Gaza conflict the international community has little leverage to prevent escalation, let alone lay the foundations for a sustainable ceasefire. Condemnation of Hamas’ barbaric attacks on 7^th October is not universal.

The scale of civilian deaths ratcheting up as Israel retaliates is prompting a growing number of states to question the international failure to condemn the impunity with which Israel has been allowed to ignore international law. And so, another conflict escalates – now impacting on global shipping as the Houthis join in. A more confident West would have already the missile launch sites Yemen.

The response to both conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza represent a deeper manifestation of the West’s diminishing inability to affect a global agenda that is being overtaken by a broader, more complex contest we must now treat as the successor to a post-Cold War Global order.

2024 may indeed be an epic election year in which half the world goes to the polls. But in exercising an important democratic right it must not overshadow the very real threat to global democracy itself.

We’re living history. Events are moving fast, power bases are changing, alliances are shifting, and international standards are eroding. The decisions made by leaders, electorates, dictators and non-state actors alike are likely to shape the decade ahead.

A Trump victory would see America pull its support for Ukraine and possibly for Nato, as the leader of the Western world becomes more isolationist. The role for Britain in challenging this global turbulence cannot be overstated.

For a century, Britain has had the means, the desire and the statecraft to help shape the world. Once again, we have leading role to play in preventing the West lose its sense of collective purpose.

Will we rise to this challenge in an election year? I can only hope so. It is the economy – stupid. But only if your security is able to defend it.