Reform UK may be able to wreak havoc for the Tories... but they still have a long way to go - analysis by Jack Walters

It was no mean feat to pull off; with Labour’s ground campaign in full swing and discontent with the Tories encouraging many to stay at home.

Leading figures from Reform were delighted with the result.

Ex-Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said: “Reform were outgunned by bigger party machines in these by-elections, yet still exceeded national opinion polls. Tonight Reform came of age.”

Tice, along with Reform’s Wellingborough candidate Ben Habib, also appeared buoyed by the results ahead of the upcoming general election.

Tice said: “My message to them [the Tories] is let me take on Keir Starmer and beat him.”

While Habib added: “We’re going to do much better in the general election.”

But in spite of the optimism, comparing the current situation to the build-up to the 2015 General Election makes for some grim reading.

It would be unfair to compare February 15th’s results to any by-elections held in the run-up to the 2019 General Election as Boris Johnson remarkably transformed Tory Party fortunes to return the biggest Conservative majority since the Thatcher years.

But with Reform registering double-digit support in the opinion polls, perhaps it is fair to compare the results with the four contests held ahead of David Cameron’s shock majority victory when UKIP was exerting enormous pressure on CCHQ.

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Following two defections, Ukip managed to retain Clacton and Rochester & Strood in subsequent by-elections.

Farage’s outfit also managed to run Labour close in Heywood & Middleton, receiving 38.7 per cent of votes.

Ukip even leapfrogged Labour into second-place when Robert Jenrick stood as the candidate in Newark’s by-election.

However, less than 12 months later, Ukip performed worse in all four seats, losing Rochester & Strood, as the Tory squeeze operation was in full-swing.

Perhaps there is less to squeeze today given overwhelming frustrations with the Tory Party and Rishi Sunak.

But it would be naive to think that Reform will retain the level of support it saw on Thursday.

Ukip on average shed almost a third of its votes across the quartet of pre-2015 by-election contests; with more than half of its voters switching in Newark.

A similar overall situation would leave Reform on just nine per cent in Wellingborough and 7.5 per cent in Kingswood, well below the populist party’s national polling average.

It is important to remember that both the Midlands market town and West Country suburb should make for fertile ground for Reform.

Wellingborough and Kingswood both backed Brexit in 2016 and had a substantial Ukip base which sat above the average in 2015.

Reform would probably have hoped to exceed current levels of support in the opinion polls to demonstrate its ability to break through.

There was some expectation management from insiders ahead of polling day but some activists in Wellingborough were confident that the populist party would end up breathing down the Tories’ necks.

A source told GB News: “I will be delighted if we hit 10 per cent and I will be over the moon of we surprise the Tories and catch them.”

I mean, let’s be honest, Wellingborough and Kingswood should make substantially prettier reading for Tice than results from metropolitan, Remain-supporting, Labour seats, such as Streatham or Bristol West.

In fact, Ukip picked up 19.6 per cent of ballots in Wellingborough and 14.8 per cent of votes in Kingswood in 2015.

With Reform seemingly below UKIP’s high point, it would appear unlikely Tice will return any MPs to the House of Commons.

Despite falling short of landing a hammer blow, Reform UK could yet wreak havoc for Sunak across England.

The populist party could play a role in ousting dozens of Tory MPs.

It should be acknowledged that not all Reform voters would switch to the Conservatives but polls suggest the figure is around one-in-three, with one-in-four vowing not to vote at all.

And it remains hard to really know just how damaging Reform could be given Farage opted to stand down candidates in Tory-held seats at the last general election.

However, support for Reform combined with disaffection among Tory voters would mean just one thing; a landslide Labour victory.

Reform has not been quiet about its loathing for the Conservative Party.

Ahead of polling day, Habib said: “My initial aim when I announced my rejoining of Reform UK in March last year, was to obliterate the Tory Party.”

Farage added: “Reform isn't here for one election. It's here for the long term to try and replace the existing establishment parties.”

Now, the Prime Minister is wrong to merely say these are mid-term blues, but if voters couldn’t bring themselves to support Reform on February 15, why would they at a general election?

Sunak has lost six by-elections on the bounce, with enormous swings carrying Labour to five victories and enabling the Liberal Democrats to make yet another dent in the Blue Wall.

However, and this is far too optimistic than many would be inclined to suggest, there is some glimmer of hope in the Tory campaign’s desperate damage-limitations operation.

Reform UK were unable to coax thousands of former Conservative voters on Thursday.

If previous elections are anything to go by then the Tories could look to win these voters back amid concern about Labour's fiscal policies or potentially on immigration.

However, with the Conservatives hardly covering themselves in glory on either issue, there is one man who could give many Tory voters another reason to head down to polling stations at the general election.

Enter stage right; Nigel Farage.