Will Reform UK build on record 2023 support - or can the Tories stop their momentum?
The Conservative Party is facing a significant challenge from Reform UK.
Richard Tice's party increased their support throughout last year - but the challenge is whether they can do that again in a General Election year
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One of the big political developments of 2023 undoubtedly was the rise in support form Richard Tice's Reform UK party.
The party has regularly tied with the Liberal Democrats and at times surpassed them, registering as the country's third party.
That is a significant achievement for a party outside of the Westminster bubble, with no representation in Parliament at all.
The 2023 shift in support was underlined by the last People Polling survey for GB News that showed Labour hitting 45 per cent, a whopping 22-point lead over Rishi Sunak's Conservatives.
Meanwhile both Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats also registered a double digit level of support, with both on 10 per cent.
So the trend of 2023 was crystal clear: big Labour leads, no poll recovery for the Tories under Sunak and Reform hitting their highest ever levels.
In 2024, Reform will be hoping to ramp up support further - just as the Tories will be looking to win back Brexiteers who have abandoned the party since 2019.
Of course there is still massive speculation as to what Nigel Farage could do next.
He has warned that the "level of distrust amongst traditional Conservative voters is at a level we’ve not seen in modern times".
The challenge for Sunak is whether he can quell this level of annoyance from current and former Tory voters.
Soon we will have a General Election where Reform candidates will be challenging Tory MPs, for instance, on leaving the ECHR to stop the illegal migrant boats.
This changes the dynamics significantly from the last General Election, when sitting Conservative MPs received a free run from the Brexit Party.
So time is clearly running out for Sunak to stop the rise in support for Reform. Whether he can do so or not is likely to be one of the defining factors of the next election.
