Will London’s Ulez expansion be scrapped in 2024? We can only all hope - analysis by Howard Cox

Greater London's 9,000 miles of roads are critical to the UK economy because 80 per cent of journeys in the capital take place on the roads. No doubt the millions of extra wallets in this expanded territory were too good to be true, for a financially bungling Mayor to ignore. He needs the extra dosh to pay off his self-generated £14billion of debt.

Let’s be clear though. All drivers want outstanding air quality and the cleanest of environments, but not by hitting the lowest income drivers and small businesses, hardest. These deep-seated honest sentiments from hard-working taxpayers, who have no choice but to use their vehicles, continue to be ignored by myopic green supporters of an emotional Greta Thunberg and an ego-driven arrogant Sadiq Khan.

The falsehoods, that both virtue signallers sermonise to their easy-to-fool cult followers, ignore scientific facts. They rely on sinister indoctrinations to implement their punitive mantras and policies.

Fact! The use of the internal combustion engine here in the UK is not destroying the planet or killing thousands of people. And for the record out of the top 110 cities in the world, our capital city is the 14th cleanest in terms of air quality (source IQAir.com). And to put this into true perspective Rome is 88th, Munich 72nd, Madrid 64th and Paris 49th.

Under the current Government, air quality on most measures has continued to improve, dramatically so. In 2022, for example, the average number of hours when Particulate Matter (PM2.5) concentrations was 'high' at roadside monitoring sites was five, compared with nine in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 and 28 in 2012. And the air quality in London continues to improve, but not because of Ulez.

And in TfL’s underground rail network, polluted air averages at least 2,000 percent worse than at roadside levels. Worryingly passengers and staff are being put at risk, because of little, if any, preventative measures in place to reduce the contamination of the air we breathe in the Tube.

It sticks in my craw, how Sir Keir Starmer allows the current Mayor of London to remain as a member of the Labour Party. The likely next Prime Minister has allowed Sadiq Khan to use lie after lie to implement policies that are hurting the very people Labour purports to represent.

Khan was found to have lied about Ulez on several occasions: For example, he misled the public about the “benefits” of Ulez in radio and newspaper advertisements, a draft report leaked to The Sunday Telegraph. The Advertising Standards Authority found two of his adverts were “misleading” because they “did not clarify” claims NO2 levels had “reduced by nearly half” as a result of Ulez and were based on “estimates or modelled scenarios” and not “actual figures”.

He claims that 4,000 people die each year from poor air quality. The science however clearly states that there is insufficient evidence to establish a causal link between exposure to air pollution and mortality. There is only one death certificate in the last decade in London that records a sad death due to air pollution.

Khan claims the original Ulez zone covering central London has reduced nitrogen dioxide pollution by 29 per cent. The Imperial College report that has received £800,000 worth of funding from taxpayers via the Mayor, reviewed the methodology of Khan’s data. These well-financed academics say Ulez had reduced nitrogen dioxide by a mere three per cent and had a negligible effect on particulate pollution. They concluded 'Ulez on its own is not an effective strategy in the sense that the marginal causal effects were small'. Don’t forget TfL had already shown that expanding Ulez to Greater London would make a negligible difference to air quality.

There are so many other examples that show Sadiq Khan is not fit for office and how disturbingly, the Tory opposition has allowed this dictator to get away with destroying the economic and social fabric of our proud Capital city for nearly eight years. Shamefully, it was Noel Willcox, a small businessman that got a court of law to prove existing LEZ and Ulez signs are unlawful. The Conservatives in City Hall talk a good game but have done nothing to prevent the damage caused by the Labour Mayor. A few visits to a Judge could have made the difference.

The existing Ulez has a massive negative impact on the London economy too. According to the Cebr, the total Ulez scheme cost to London’s GDP is circa £807million per year. Moreover, these calculations only estimate the direct effects. The commercial and economic cost to London of Ulez is more than dire, it is catastrophic. How has the Treasury let this happen?

The Next Mayor of London, which many hope is yours truly, will have to balance billions of debts with pragmatic policies that will get London prosperous, safer, and moving again. A tall order of tasks that frankly I, as Reform UK’s candidate, will not shy away from. But all Londoners must have the courage to vote for real change and not succumb to more of the same by voting for Labour or Tory in London. That is the risk, being scared to vote for real change that will benefit all Londoners, not just the privileged elite.

Howard Cox - Reform UK’s London Mayoral Candidate and Founder of FairFuelUK.