Remainers will laud Macron’s big gamble but chaos looms if ‘Le Boss’ faces ‘Brexit’ fate - analysis by Jack Walters

Trying to put clear blue water between Europhile Macron and Leaver Rishi Sunak, those still enraged by a red battle bus lauded the increasingly unpopular 46-year-old for taking the opposite approach to his beleaguered British counterpart.

Meanwhile, Sunak is being accused of awkwardly dancing to Farage's tune by adopting populist policies while facing the disastrous prospect of Reform UK leapfrogging the Tories in just a few days time.

Macron, unlike Sunak, might have had the political nous to attend D-Day commemorations in full but he will not necessarily emerge after July 7 in a situation too dissimilar.

The right is wreaking havoc across a number of western democracies, with populists sensing blood on both sides of the Channel.

EU antagoniser Farage, who is hoping his Clacton bid is more fruitful than his seven previous attempts to enter the House of Commons, is seeking to “realign the centre-right” under the banner of Reform UK.

And Sunak was outfoxed by Farage after he appeared to initially stump the Brexit stalwart by calling a snap general election.

Having initially ruled out standing, Farage’s candidacy U-turn threatens to reduce the Tory rump to double-digits as Conservative insiders genuinely fear being overtaken by Reform UK in the popular vote.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is following a similar trajectory, storming ahead in the 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections just a decade after Ukip’s seminal victory ahead of the Brexit referendum.

Picking up 31.5 per cent of the vote and 30 MEPs, the populist party soared as Macron’s Ensemble capitulated.

National Rally received a plurality of votes across large swathes of France, with centrist’s concentrating support in heavily-populated urban areas.

Channelling David Cameron in 2016, Macron looked to call the populists’ bluff.

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“The rise of the nationalists and demagogues is a threat not only to our nation but also to our Europe and to France’s place in Europe and in the world,” he said.

Cameron, who returned to the fold as Sunak’s Foreign Secretary during last autumn’s shock reshuffle, initially labelled Ukip as “fruitcakes”, “loonies” and “closet racists”, later accusing Brexit-backing Conservative colleagues of wanting to “take the country backwards”.

The former Prime Minister stood on the steps of Downing Street just weeks after creating further fault-lines in the Tory family to tender his resignation.

Macron might have received credit for wanting to take on the right and in some ways it can be understoodd.

In the words of John Major, it certainly is time for populists to “put up, or shut up” and dismissing detractors is hardly a way to run a successful political operation.

However, the truth is, Macron has an even weaker hand than Cameron did when he put a date on an in-out referendum.

Buoyed by a shock majority, Cameron called a poll having suffered several stings from Ukip and backbench rebellions on European integration.

Cameron’s decision to call a referendum on June 23, 2016, came after four consecutive polls put Remain ahead, with two handing Europhiles double-digit leads.

Macron instead finds himself languishing behind the National Rally in Brussels, with Raphael Glucksmann’s Socialist Party breathing down his neck.

The latest French legislative opinion poll, albeit conducted in December, put Macron’s centrist coalition behind the populist right and Jean-Luc Melenchon’s left-wing alliance.

Macron, who is barred from contesting another presidential poll due to French term limits, would even likely lose to Le Pen in a head-to-head contest, despite trouncing her in 2017 and winning by five million votes five years later.

And leading figures from the National Rally seem more than up for the fight.

Marine Le Pen said: “We're ready to turn the country around, ready to defend the interests of the French, ready to put an end to mass immigration.”

National Rally’s EU leader Jordan Bardella added: “Emmanuel Macron is a weakened president tonight.

“The unprecedented gap between the presidential majority and the leading opposition party tonight reflects a stinging disavowal and rejection of the President and his Government.”

Nonetheless, Macron’s decision will likely prove not as calamitous as Sunak’s early election as it won’t result in the French President being booted out of power.

However, it could produce a period of unstable “Cohabitation” in Paris akin to the threat posed by the Tories by Farage if he wins in Clacton.

It is not uncommon for France to elect a President from a different party to its Prime Minister.

But it would indeed be staggering to see how a centrist head of state could work with a populist legislative chief without the seams of governance bursting altogether.

Macron has already been forced to pivot his position, having failed to win an outright majority in 2022.

The populist left and right, hardly allies on the surface, capitalised on the chaos and almost pulled off a remarkable feat.

A no confidence motion tabled last year fell just nine votes short of toppling Macron’s Government, with 287 centrists halting the charge of 278 MPs from the far-flung coalition.

However, Europe’s heir to Tony Blair was already forced to adopt a more hardline stance on immigration just to shore up support.

The decision outraged Macron’s naturally liberal allies, with Aurelien Rousseau resigning from his Government.

So, Remainers, your man has indeed taken a bold step.

He is taking the fight to the populist right and staking much of his credibility on defying the opinion polls.

Whether it’s a political masterstroke which allows Macron to limp on a little longer or as explosive as Cameron's downfall remains to be seen.