Inside Emmanuel Macron’s crumbling coalition as populist parties set sights on hammer blow election

The 46-year-old, with his French charm and dashing-looks, might have been seen as an attractive prospect when voters decisively favoured him over Marine Le Pen in 2017.

However, his stint in the Elysee Palace has witnessed his support and likability plummet as protests swept across Europe’s second-largest nation.

The Gilets Jaunes, pension protests and recent continental-wide farmers’ demonstrations highlight just how difficult politicking has become from Macron and his centrist colleagues.

It all looks likely to come to a head in the upcoming EU Parliament Elections, with National Rally opening up double-digit leads in the opinion polls.

Such a result would see France follow in the footsteps of other populist earthquakes engulfing the continent, including in the Netherlands and Italy.

National Rally managed to narrowly edge-out Macron’s Renaissance Party in 2019 but returned the same amount of MEPs to Brussels and Strasbourg.

Returning significantly more hardline Eurosceptic MEPs would inevitably prove more symbolic than it would be legislative, given the foundations of EU law-making stem from its unelected Commission rather than its bloated Chamber.

However, just as Ukip and the Brexit Party managed before, June’s populist wave could spark bedlam for the so-called European Establishment.

Frexit leader Charles-Henri Gallois, who claimed soaring anti-EU sentiment can help explain France’s populist shift, told GB News: “June is a step towards the presidential election.

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“Even if you have a majority in the EU Parliament you don’t have the power to change the treaties. The only thing you can do as an MEP is stop transferring more sovereignty.”

Macron might face a tough-task in June but constitutional limits will require him to hand over the centrist mantle to someone else by 2027.

Gabriel Attal, who became the youngest and first gay Prime Minister of France last month, is seen as a likely contender as Macron’s protege.

However, if IFOP’s latest opinion poll is anything to go by, maybe Macron should count himself lucky as Le Pen might yet emerge victorious with a fourth bite at the cherry.

Though Le Pen is etching closer to the Elysee Palace, she is not the only politician carrying the mantle for the populist right.

Reconquete leader Eric Zemmour looked to ride the wave of anti-globalist sentiment when he stood in the 2017 French Presidential Election.

The 65-year-old polemicist, who is known for his tough positions on Islam and immigration, ended up with just seven per cent of the vote in the first round ballot but remains outspoken about the state of France.

Speaking to Michael Portillo on GB News earlier this month, Zemmour said: “I think that France is living through a crisis on many fronts and that demonstrates a global decline.

“We’ve had an agricultural crisis in recent days. We’re experiencing an immigration crisis.

“We are living through an economic and social crisis, with low wages and growing inflation. I think that we chose the wrong system.

“For 40 years, our elite imposed on us a global system which was based on consumption, immigration, debt and taxes.”

However, with such a significant threat posed on his right flank, Macron is also at risk of letting his coalition crumble with a re-energised onslaught from the left.

Artus Galiay, Hauts-de-France Representative to the UK, said: “Alienating the liberal left is the main threat. Once Le Pen voted for the law it caused complete outrage within his majority.

“Macron forced his MPs to vote for the law. It was voted for by around two-thirds of MPs, roughly the same as the number of French people who want a tougher approach on immigration.

“But the problem is that centrist MPs voted for the law but were obviously against it. Six or seven threatened to resign but only one Minister actually quit.”

He added: “Macron can feel that the right has the momentum and is adopting a more right-wing view of the world but the consequence is that many left-wing supporters are feeling disenchanted and now they’re looking for alternatives.”

Despite the left-wing vote being split between several parties, Gailay highlighted how it accounted for around one-third of all ballots but the right-wing vote stands at over 40 per cent.

Ex-Health Minister Aurelien Rousseau quit Macron’s Government after Le Pen seemingly mocked the President for pivoting to a more hardline immigration policy.

National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet stopped short of mounting a full-scale rebellion but argued the measures made her “very uncomfortable”.

Le Pen claimed the amended legislation constituted an “ideological victory”, while the Republican Party’s leader Eric Ciotti added: “This is our bill.”

The situation has been pounced upon by the left, including Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure.

He said: “History will remember those who betrayed their convictions.”

Left-wing Eurosceptic Jean-Luc Melenchon will also continue to snap at Macron’s heels, continuing his criticisms over the French President's handling of a number of other crises.

However, centre-left Europhile Raphaël Glucksmann could make Macron’s task even harder as support for the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats hit 10 per cent just days after the immigration row broke out.

There also remains some logistical issues with the legislation after 32 of France's 101 departments refused to implement the provisions of the law on benefits for non-citizens.

Macron’s position was made much precarious just months after re-election as his Renaissance Party failed to win an outright majority in the 2022 legislative elections.

The populist right and populist left, hardly allies on the surface, capitalised on the chaos and almost pulled off a remarkable feat.

A no confidence motion tabled last year fell just nine votes short of toppling Macron’s Government, with 287 centrists halting the charge of 278 MPs from the far-flung coalition.

Galiay said: “Although Macron is the first President in the Fifth Republic to be re-elected outside a period of Cohabitation, without an outright majority in Parliament, since June 2022, it’s been incredibly difficult for them to govern.”