Christopher Hope's SEVEN predictions for 2024... and there's no Labour election majority

1) I expect the general election to be held in November this year, probably on November 7, as Rishi Sunak seeks to maximise his time in No10 Downing Street before he has to go to the country (although, see 4 for a caveat).

2) This is because by November the political outlook looks set to be improving for the Tories, with inflation, interest rates and NHS waiting lists all likely to be down.

3) It won’t all be good news. It will be another difficult summer for the Government's policy on stopping small boats, not least with the Paris Olympics drawing policing to the capital away from English Channel.

But the far bigger net migration figure looks set to fall this year after the record highs recorded last year, as the flow of legal migration from Ukraine and Hong Kong slows, and controls on other legal migration - such as allowing migrants to bring in family members - are felt.

An improving picture on net migration could also mean that the election date is pushed back to December, to allow ministers to take the credit once the Office for National Statistics has published the official figures.

5) The Tories will continue to be buffeted by by-election troubles, probably losing the expected Wellingborough and Blackpool South by-elections in the first half of this year.

6) I don't expect Boris Johnson to stand at any general election this year, but I do expect the right of centre Reform Party to elect an MP at the election.

7) The general election will be a lot tighter than polls currently suggest. I don't think the political picture will improve enough for the Tories to win a majority at the next election.

In fact, for me the most likely option is a hung Parliament, with Labour as the largest party. A Lib Dem/Lab coalition anyone? Stay tuned to GB News, the election channel.