'No silver bullet!' Nine million people in England to live with major illnesses by 2040
A general view of staff on a NHS hospital ward
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Nine million people in England will live with major illnesses by 2040, a health warning has claimed.
England’s ageing population will see a rapid rise in people living with dementia, diabetes, cancer, depression and kidney disease over the next two decades.
The number living with serious diseases will soar from around one-in-six of England’s adult population in 2019 to nearly one-in-five.
The rise will inevitably result in huge implications for the National Health Service, social care and public finances.
A consultant analysing a mammogram
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An expert described the situation facing England over the next two decades as “catastrophic”.
Dr Sarah Clarke, the president of the Royal College of Physicians, said: “The projections laid out in the Health Foundation’s report will quite frankly be catastrophic – for people and their families, for the health of the NHS and its workforce, and for the prosperity of the nation.
A report from the Health Foundation suggested an extra 2.5 million people will live with major illnesses.
The change will result in a 37 per cent increase to 9.1 million compared to 2019.
A generic stock photo of a nurse helping an elderly patient at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham
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People in England aged 70 will have an average of three long-term conditions, researchers have warned.
The number will increase to more than five by the age of 85.
Despite a rise in chronic health conditions, average life expectancy in England is projected to rise to 83.1 years.
The report said: “There is no silver bullet to reduce the growth in the number of people living with major illness.
A general view of staff on a NHS hospital ward
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“A long-term plan is needed to reform, modernise and invest in the NHS, alongside a bold new approach to investing in the nation’s health and wellbeing.”
Health Foundation’s Anita Charlesworth added: “The growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure.
“But with one in five people projected to be living with major illness in less than two decades’ time, the impact will extend well beyond the health service and has significant implications for other public services, the labour market and the public finances.”
Deteriorating health is being driven up by England’s ageing population.
A man smoking a cigarette
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Longer lifespans have ensured people are more likely to live with major illnesses.
Experts have identified measures which could make the growth of such illnesses avoidable.
Dr Clarke added: “We know that much of this illness is avoidable – it’s caused by smoking, poor housing, unemployment, poor food and air quality, and obesity.
“We need a strategy that pulls at every policy lever available in order to build a healthier society and economy.”
However, declining smoking rates across England has also led to an expected drop in coronary heart disease.
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