China could take control of Taiwan without firing a shot, war experts have warned.
Beijing could look to seize the island, which is not officially recognised as a state by the UK, through an aggressive coercion campaign.
A new report released by the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War explores a scenario where Xi Jinping launches a “campaign that remains far short of invasion but nevertheless brings Taiwan under Beijing's control”.
It also warned there is a "significant gap in US strategic thought” concerning such an event.
Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during an event to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Message to Compatriots in Taiwan at the Great Hall of the PeopleGETTYChina is already conducting significant portions of such a campaign, including military exercises both in the Taiwan Strait and around the island.
However, economic and diplomatic pressure is notable, with misinformation creating further problems for Taipei.
The report identified cooperation, a functioning Taiwanese Government, resistance to China’s cognitive campaigns and hesitance against Beijing’s misinformation strategy as key avenues to counter the threat.
It added: “Taiwan is strategically vital to the larger US-led coalition to contain China.”
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President Xi Jinping has set out to purge members of the military who he believes are unwilling or unprepared for war, analysts have claimedGettyChina could look to “springboard” its efforts in the South China Sea by taking Taiwan, the experts argued.
Washington is being encouraged to recognise the “possibility and danger of a coercion campaign that is far more intense than the one currently ongoing against Taiwan and develop ways to prevent Taiwan's isolation through means short of war”.
The report's authors argued that “increased efforts in the information domain will be key to ensuring that the US Government and friendly international audiences do not fall prey to [Chinese] information operations intended to reshape the way Americans and key international actors think”.
The US continues to keep an eye on China’s actions in the region.
Joe BidenREUTERSFormer Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command John Aquilano warned in March that Beijing was pursuing a massive military build-up not seen since World War II.
He also alleged Xi could look to launch an invasion by 2027.
Aquilano urged lawmakers to intensify America’s military development and posturing in the Pacific in order to deter such a fight.
Sino-American relations took a diplomatic downturn earlier this week after Joe Biden announced new tariffs on electric vehicles due to China’s “unfair trade practices”.