‘Gething has only been Welsh First Minister for 78 days…Will he still be 78 days from now?’ - analysis by Katherine Forster

He wasn’t and he isn’t.

Two Welsh Labour MSs (Members of the Senedd) were off sick. The opposition parties refused to help out with a pairing operation.

Worth saying a bit about these two. Hannah Blythyn, the first, Gething sacked as a minister recently, alleging she had leaked text messages to the media (an accusation she denies). The second, Lee Waters, has been a vocal critic of Gething’s decision to accept a £200,000 campaign donation from a firm owned by David Neal, convicted twice of dumping waste.

This £200,000 donation is what has led to his rapid fall from grace.

But in truth, behind the optics of his election, making history as the first black leader of a European country, the cracks were already there that day in March.

The majority of the Labour Members of the Senedd had preferred his rival for the leadership, former education minister Jeremy Miles. He was narrowly defeated by Gething, who won by 52 per cent to Miles’ 48 per cent. The unions, with their larger membership, had swung behind Gething, which proved crucial.

And Miles had come this close having had just £59,000 to fund his campaign.

There’s also the murky matter of missing messages which he could not provide to the Covid inquiry (having been Health Minister during the pandemic). He claims not to have deleted them (but others say differently).

And alleged lobbying too.

Following the tears, he batted away the calls from the opposition parties for his resignation.

“I have never made a decision, in more than a decade as a minister, for personal or financial gain”, he said. He maintains he has “always acted with integrity”, “followed all the rules”, and will “carry on doing my duty”.

And when I asked Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer about this at Labour’s Welsh campaign launch in Abergavenny last week, Starmer stressed Gething hadn’t broken any rules.

But Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Welsh Conservatives, says this is about “judgement, transparency and honesty”.

Opposition MSs are outraged. And there are cries of hypocrisy, given Gething has been quick to find fault with Westminster and other parties in the past.

So if he won’t go of his own accord, what now?

The opposition parties might call a vote of confidence in the whole Government. They’d be unlikely to win, I think.

But it’s hard to see how Gething comes back from this, given he does not have the support of the majority of the Senedd. Allies say the two Labour MSs off sick would have voted for him. But they weren’t there and they didn’t.

And it’s terrible timing for Labour in the middle of a General Election campaign. Starmer used to hold Wales up as a ‘blueprint’ for what Labour can do. But this scandal, along with the highly controversial 20mph speed limits (now weakened) and the sustainable farming scheme (now delayed), and Wales’ poor record on NHS waits, hardly paint a positive picture.

Gething is in Normandy today at the D-Day commemorations.

He’s coming back to trouble. Might he be leant upon and change his mind? Or stand down after the General Election? Time will tell.

But it’s clear that political turmoil is no longer just the preserve of Westminster. Liz Truss lasted 49 days. But Humza Yousef lasted barely over a year in Scotland, where the SNP for so long seemed impregnable.

All might have seemed calm under Welsh Labour under Mark Drakeford. Those days are gone.

Will Gething still be First Minister another 78 days from now? I wouldn’t bet on it.