Jenrick vows to ‘take oxygen away from Farage’ but damning poll shows Reform UK making major gains

Speaking at an event at a local Tory association in Essex on Sunday, Jenrick consistently raised the threat posed by Reform UK and the importance of tackling the populist party before the next General Election.

In a recording shared with GB News, Jenrick claimed Tory support for withdrawing from the ECHR would stifle support for Reform UK.

He told Tory members: “Do you think we’d be in a better position with my policy, crystal clear, taking the oxygen away from Nigel Farage, make it impossible for him to have any credible policy objection to what we stand for or the alternative which is totally opaque, saying ‘well I’ll think about it, we might leave the ECHR in a couple of years time’? I think that is a recipe for disaster.”

However, Jenrick also appeared to concede Reform UK currently poses a fatal threat to the Tories.

Jenrick said: “The polls are already shifting in our favour but let’s not be under any illusions, we’ve got a mountain to climb.

“And I want to make sure that we actually seize this moment and get the party back into business. Because it is an existential challenge.

“Here in Essex you know, as I know up in north Nottinghamshire, that we’ve got Reform snapping at our heels.

“If we don’t get this right in the coming months there will be no Conservative Party. We’ll have Reform standing at Essex County Council, they’ll be splitting votes and might actually be winning.

“I don’t want to see that happening. I want us to be the standard bearers for the right in British politics, I want us to be the natural home of every small-c conservative across the country.”

Outlining his plan to thwart the rise of Reform UK, Jenrick argued the Tories need to take firm and clear positions on immigration and defence.

He also called on CCHQ to select candidates early, raise money for campaigning and increase social media output given Farage’s profile on popular platforms.

The ex-Immigration Minister’s comments came just days before a new opinion poll appeared to suggest Reform UK will make major gains irrespective of whether Jenrick or Badenoch triumph in the race to replace Rishi Sunak.

The survey, conducted by Electoral Calculus, revealed Reform UK would increase its Commons contingent from just five MPs to 24 or 25.

Reform UK’s boost might help explain Farage’s apparent indifference to the Tory leadership race, with the Clacton MP recently saying: “I couldn’t care less.”

Farage, who Jenrick described as “rattled”, said of the Newark MP: “If you want lessons in being Nigel Farage, I promise you, I don't charge that much money for doing it.”

Turning his attention to Badenoch, Farage added: “I'm pretty confident that if it's Kemi Badenoch, she'll fall flat on her face pretty quickly.”

The populist party is instead planning to take the fight to Labour and the Tories in next year’s local elections.

During Reform UK’s annual conference at the NEC in Birmingham, Farage even set his sights on becoming Prime Minister in 2029.

A post-election bounce for the populist party left ex-Tory MP Miriam Cates pleading with Badenoch and Jenrick to “swallow their pride” by signing up to an electoral pact with Reform UK.

However, the Electoral Calculus poll indicated Jenrick is better placed to ensure Labour cannot return to power in 2029 with a majority.

It revealed that Jenrick would increase the Tory number of seats from 121 to 178, with Labour falling from 412 to 311.

The Liberal Democrats would also drop from 72 to just 58 MPs.

Under Badenoch, the Conservatives would increase their number of seats from 121 to 151, while Labour would fall from 412 to 332.

Sir Ed Davey’s party would dip from 72 to 63 and Reform UK would rise to 25.

Speaking about his plans for Labour in Essex on Sunday, the ex-Immigration Minister said: “I’m not prepared to put this country through a generation of Labour rule.

“Let’s get on and consign Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, David Lammy, Ed Miliband, to a one-term Labour Government.”