MAPPED: Five seats Reform would gain and 10 more that could switch if there was an election today

In the 2024 General Election, Nigel Farage’s party won five seats, had 609 candidates and received 14.3 per cent of the vote.

Reform won two seats in the East Midlands (Ashfield, and Boston and Skegness) and three seats in the East of England (Clacton, Great Yarmouth, and South Basildon and East Thurrock). All Reform gains were from Conservative seats.

Now, based on opinion polls which gauge voting intentions released since the general election, Reform UK would take three seats from Labour and two from the Conservatives.

Reform UK is forecast to take seats in South West Norfolk, Hornchurch and Upminster, Basildon and Billericay, Sittingbourne and Sheppey and Llanelli if an election were held today.

The next general election is not expected to take place until August 2029.

In South West Norfolk, currently held by Labour MP Terry Jermy, Election Maps UK forecasts that Reform would take 25.7 per cent of the vote share, followed by the Tories (24.4 per cent) and finally, Labour (23.6 per cent).

Similarly, in Conservative MP Julia Lopez’s constituency Hornchurch and Upminster, it is predicted that Reform would take 32.5 per cent of the vote while the Tories would lag at 31.2 per cent.

In Basildon and Billericay, Conservative MP Richard Holden could be ousted as Reform would take 30.5 per cent of the vote leaving the Tories with 29.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, Reform could also gain Sittingbourne and Sheppey from Labour MP Kevin McKenna with 29 per cent, followed by the Tories (27.3 per cent) and finally Labour (26 per cent).

Finally, in Llanelli, Labour MP Nia Griffith could see her seat taken by Reform sitting at 28.9 per cent compared to Labour’s 25.8 per cent.

While it is common for the governing party to lose support once the election honeymoon period wears off, Labour has faced a series of difficulties in its first few months in power.

The prime minister faced criticism for taking the Winter Fuel Payments away from 10 million pensioners while it also emerged Starmer broke parliamentary rules by initially failing to declare more than £5,000 towards clothing that Labour peer Lord Alli had given to Lady Starmer.

Further damage was done after it was revealed that Sue Gray, Starmer’s powerful chief of staff, is being paid £3,000 more than him.

In the 2024 General Election, Reform came second place in 98 constituencies. In 89 of these cases, it was second to Labour. Sixty of these were in the north of England and 13 were in Wales.

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These results mean that to Starmer’s government, the right-wing party could pose almost as great a threat as the wounded Conservative party, which is forming the official opposition.

Reform continues to poll second in many constituencies across the country with safe Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem seats, however, in other areas, they are polling very closely with other parties which could swing if another election was held today.

Areas where Reform is polling in a very close second place include:

Amber Valley

1. Labour: 33.9%

2. Reform: 33.9%

Havant

1. Conservatives: 29.4 %

2. Reform: 27.2%

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

1. Labour: 22.7%

2. Reform: 20.7%

Folkestone and Hythe

1. Labour: 31.5%

2. Reform: 28.1%

Castle Point

1. Conservative: 36.8%

2. Reform: 33.7%

Cannock Chase

1. Labour: 33.4%

2. Reform: 30.2%

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes

1. Labour: 38.8%

2. Reform: 34.6%

Tipton and Wednesbury

1. Labour: 33.9%

2. Reform: 28.7%

Isle of Wight East

1. Conservative: 29%

2. Reform: 24.2%

Bridgwater

1. Conservative: 29.2%

2. Reform: 25.8%