MAPPED: Reform’s new heartlands revealed as Farage’s party set to decimate Labour strongholds – is YOURS one?

Today national pollsters MoreInCommon put Reform on 25 per cent, tied in first with the Conservatives as the most popular party.

Pollsters ElectionMapsUK have aggregated all national polls in a sophisticated mapping model, weighted for recency and historic pollster accuracy, and generated an electoral map of Britain.

It shows a whopping 76 seats flipping to Reform, with Farage’s party dominating in certain pockets of Britain, usually where Labour once held favour.

GB News has analysed the map and can reveal Reform’s new heartlands are the south-east around the Thames Estuary, the Midlands around Stoke, south Yorkshire and the coast of County Durham in England’s northwest.

EXPLORE: Reform's projected heartlands

All these areas were dominated by Labour in the July 2024 election and have historically voted for Keir Starmer’s party.

In the Thames Estuary area, Reform is set to win 13 of 16 seats, with eight coming at Labour’s expense. In the northwest heartland, Farage’s party is projected to take nine of eleven seats, all from Labour.

In the midland's heartland, Labour is set to lose nine seats to Reform, of a possible 14. And finally in south Yorkshire, Reform is tipped to win seven of 10 seats, also all from Labour.

Reform UK’s projected gains in these areas are all the more eye-opening because they are doing what opposition parties have tried to do for decades.

Take the Barnsley North constituency for example. Labour has won the seat since its creation in 1983, most recently triumphing with a 7,811 majority.

But the seat is now projected to flip to Reform in massive swing to Farage’s party.

The story is similar in Hartlepool where Labour has won since 1974, with the exception of a brief Tory triumph in a 2021 by-election.

The seat is now set to go to Reform in a hefty 12.4 per cent swing.

It comes as speculation around a possible by-election in disgraced MP Mike Amesbury’s seat intensifies.

The Labour MP pleaded guilty in court last week after a video showing him sucker punching a constituent in a late night bust up was posted online.

Amesbury is yet to resign and trigger a by-election, however. If he receives a custodial or suspended sentence, a recall petition will be offered to his constituents asking if they want another election.

If 10 per cent of eligible voters sign the petition, a by-election would be called, something Labour will be dreading.

Reform UK has been campaigning hard in the seat over the Christmas period in preparation for a by-election, distributing election material and knocking on doors.

Reacting to the research, a Reform UK spokesman said: “This research tells us what we all know, Reform UK has all the momentum in British politics.

"We are surging in the polls and our membership is growing daily. Thanks to this surge in membership, we have more activists than ever before ready to campaign for the May elections.

"We are reconstituting the centre-right of British politics, the Tory brand is broken and Reform are now the real opposition."

LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:

• The 15 missed opportunities to stop Southport triple killer Axel Rudakubana
• Britain is now a country where the state silences questions and routinely lies - Carole Malone
• REVEALED: The scandalous climate bill that will give Labour UNCHALLENGED power to pursue net zero

FULL BREAKDOWN

Heartland One - Thames Estuary

Reform gains

Sittingbourne and Sheppey / Labour / Kevin McKenna

Rochester and Strood / Labour / Lauren Edwards

Gillingham and Rainham / Labour / Naushabah Khan

Chatham and Aylesford / Labour / Tristan Osborne

Dartford / Labour / Jim Dickson

Bexleyheath and Crayford / Labour / Daniel Francis

Dagenham and Rainham / Labour / Margaret Mullane

Hornchurch and Upminster / Conservative / Julia Lopez

Thurrock / Labour / Jen Craft

South Basildon and East Thurrock / Reform / James McMurdock

Castle Point / Conservative / Rebecca Harris

Rayleigh and Wickford / Conservative / Mark Francois

Basildon and Billericay / Conservative / Richard Holden

Heartland Two – Midlands around Stoke

Reform gains

Stoke-on-Trent North / Labour / David Williams

Stoke-on-Trent Central / Labour / Gareth Snell

Burton and Uttoxeter / Labour / Jacob Collier

Cannock Chase / Labour / Josh Newbury

Tamworth / Labour / Sarah Edwards

North Warwickshire and Bedworth / Labour / Rachel Taylor

Nuneaton / Labour / Jodie Gosling

Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North / Labour / Liam Byrne

Walsall and Bloxwich / Labour / Valerie Vaz

Heartland Three - Northwest Coast

Reform Gains

South Shields / Labour / Emma Lewell-Buck

Sunderland Central / Labour / Lewis Atkinson

Houghton and Sunderland South / Labour / Bridget Phillipson

Easington / Labour / Grahame Morris

Hartlepool / Labour / Jonathan Brash

Bishop Auckland / Labour / Sam Rushworth

North Durham / Labour / Luke Akehurst

Washington and Gateshead South / Labour / Sharon Hodgson

Heartland Four – South Yorkshire

Reform Gains

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley / Labour / Yvette Cooper

Normanton and Hemsworth / Labour / Jon Trickett

Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / Labour / Lee Pitcher

Rotherham / Labour / Sarah Champion

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough / Labour / John Healey

Barnsley South / Labour / Stephanie Peacock

Barnsley North / Labour / Dan Jarvis