Reform UK is eyeing multiple electoral upsets today in a fresh wave of elections that couldn’t have come at a worse time for Labour and Keir Starmer.
The Prime Minister, whose popularity has crashed faster than any leader in living memory, is facing intensifying calls to resign after it emerged he’d met with a voice coach just before Christmas in 2020 when the nation was in a severe lockdown.
Starmer previously slammed the Tories for Covid breaches in Downing Street and stated he would resign if he was fined for sharing a beer and a curry with colleagues in Durham.
The Met police has confirmed Starmer will not be investigated over the incident as it was too long ago.
Labour is also trying to bat away accusations the party is colluding with the Tories by allowing nine councils to cancel their elections in May, something Farage has called a ‘denial of democracy.’
The Reform UK leader has been vehemently attacking the government for ‘denying people their chance to vote for Reform.’
However, the five council by-elections due today are going ahead, with Reform mounting challenges in four seats.
GB News has analysed the seats and can reveal the following are most under threat from Reform.
Nigel Farage affirms Reform UK are 'ANGRY' over local election cancellationsGBNThe Bentleys & Frating (Essex)
Reform look nailed on to unseat the Tories in the council ward of the Bentleys and Frating, Essex.
The Conservatives cruised to victory in 2023 with over 40 per cent of the vote, well out ahead of the Lib Dems with 13 per cent.
While polling data is unavailable for constituency wards, it is available for the wider Westminster constituency, which in this case is Nigel Farage’s own constituency of Clacton.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polls and weights them for historic pollster accuracy and recency, shows Clacton as a safe Reform seat.
The Reform leader would be returned with a 32.0 per cent majority if an election was held tomorrow, the model shows.
Baxenden (Lancashire)
Another election Reform look set to snatch is for the council ward of Baxenden near Accrington.
Labour triumphed in a close two horse race in 2024, beating the Conservatives into second and collecting 51.1 per cent of the vote.
The ward falls within the Hyndburn constituency which Labour MP Sarah Smith won from the Tories in July 2024.
But the Nowcast model shows Reform surging past the two establishment parties with a projected majority of 5.4 per cent.
EXPLORE: Reform's projected gains in Westminster seats
Rochester East & Warren Wood (Kent)
The first of two elections in Kent comes in the Rochester East and Warren Wood, a fertile Reform area.
Labour beat the Conservatives into second in 2023, but Reform had no candidates.
The ward falls across two Westminster constituencies- Rochester and Strood and Gillingham and Rainham- both of which Labour took from the Tories in July.
But the Nowcast model is now showing both seats swinging to Reform. Rochester and Strood, where Labour’s Lauren Edwards won, has a projected majority of 7.7 per cent for Reform.
In Gillingham and Rainham, Labour MP Naushabah Khan is projected to lose her seat by 2.9 per cent.
Gillingham South (Kent)
The second election in Kent is happening in Gillingham South. Labour easily beat the Tories in 2023, but once again Reform stood no candidate.
Almost all Westminster seats around the Thames Estuary are projected to flip to Reform. Gillingham’s constituency of Gillingham and Rainham is no different.
The Nowcast model shows incumbent Labour MP Naushabah Khan losing to Reform by a 2.9 per cent margin.
The only other by-election happening tomorrow is in Winnersh, Berkshire, which the Liberal Democrats look set to hold. No Reform candidate is standing.
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Rayner's election postponement comes ahead of her rollout of six new 'devolution areas' throughout EnglandPARLIAMENTLIVE.TVIt comes as voters continue to punish Labourat the ballot box for multiple unpopular decisions.
Since the July General Election, Starmer’s party has suffered a net loss of 28 seats while the Tories have recorded a net gain of 24 council seats.
Despite topping successive national polls for the first time in recent days, Reform has only won seven seats (up from 0).
However, the ‘disruptor’ party has thrust council elections into the limelight since Deputy PM Angela Rayner allowed nine councils to cancel their elections due in May.
Farage held an emergency press conference today to rail against the cancellations, some of which were due in areas Reform have been leading polls.
Farage accused the Labour Government and Tory-run councils of "collusion" and jabbed: "I thought that only dictators cancelled elections... but what I see today is collusion to stave off the threat of Reform UK on May 1."
At the same time, Reform UK released a video calling on Britons to sign a petition to hold the votes which again warns that "only dictators cancel elections" and says "Westminster is terrified of Reform UK.”
The party's Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe branded the decision an "outrage" and an "arrogant scam" after county council elections in Norfolk were called off.
Labour argues the reform to local government is badly needed to stop councils squabbling over whose responsibility certain services are.
Rayner said the postponement would pave the way for a ‘generational power shift from Whitehall to the town hall.’
Starmer’s party also argues it is expensive waste of taxpayers’ money to hold elections in authorities which are being scrapped as that would meaning new elections would be needed.
