Reform makes history by surpassing Tories in ‘key' polling - party set to take EIGHT seats in London

It showed Reform polling an average of 24 per cent nationally, 0.5 per cent higher than the struggling Tories, a momentous moment that will back Farage’s claims ‘Reform is the official opposition in the UK.’

A number of outlier polls have put Reform ahead of the Tories and Labour before, but this research confirms they are now polling higher than the Conservatives on average, a more meaningful measure.

Reform’s popularity has shot up by an average of 9.3 per cent since July’s General Election, with Labour crashing 8.7 per cent. The Tories are shown to be failing to recover from their electoral drubbing with Badenoch’s party down 0.9 per cent.

Reform UK pass the Conservatives in average polling for the first time

Reform has also been buoyed by the fact one model projected the disruptor party to take eight seats in London, traditionally a safe Labour city of the metropolitan elite.

The map was extrapolated from a poll by FindOutNow last week that gave Reform its first national lead of three points over Labour.

It showed Hornchurch and Upminster, Dagenham and Rainham, Romford, Barking, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Erith and Thamesmead, Eltham and Chislehurst and Feltham and Heston all turning turquoise.

EXPLORE: Projected electoral map of London shows Reform gaining eight seats

It comes as a national poll by Opinium put Reform on 26 per cent nationally, a shocking five points ahead of the Tories. This was just one point behind Labour on 28 per cent.

Diving into the data, the pollsters research showed Reform to be the most popular party in the Midlands (32 per cent) and Wales (29 per cent), whilst coming second in the North, London, the South and Scotland.

It also found Farage’s party to be second amongst 18–24-year-olds on 24 per cent, though that was still some way off Labour’s dominant 41 per cent in the age group.

A Reform UKspokesman said: "It’s no surprise we’re polling six points ahead of the Tories.

“The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives. Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.

"Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.

“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 185,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.

“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them."

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​Aggregate of bookmakers' odds on who the next PM will be shows Farage as the firm favourite

It comes as bookies scramble to slash odds on Reform gaining the most seats at the next election and Nigel Farage becoming the next Prime Minister.

Oddschecker, Britain’s largest odds aggregating website, shows bookmakers are overwhelmingly backing Farage to be the next PM, as are gamblers.

The Brexit supremo has odds of 3/1 for being the next occupant in Number 10, an implied probability of 25 per cent. It means if you put £5 on this outcome and won, you would only win £20.

A whopping 73 per cent of bets in the ‘next PM’ category have been on Farage, far more than second placed Kemi Badenoch who secured 8.25 per cent of bets.

Returning to odds, bookies have Kemi Badenoch in second at 7/1 (implied probability of 12.5 per cent and potential £40 return) and Wes Streeting- Starmer’s Health Secretary- in third, with odds of 10/1 (implied probability of 9 per cent and potential £55 return).

Boris Johnson, who is not even an MP, was fourth in bookmakers’ odds at 14/1 (implied probability of 6.67 per cent and potential £70 return).

Odds for which party will win the most seats at the next election are also revealing. Reform are favourites at 5/2 (attracting 52 per cent of bets), with the Conservatives at 15/8 and Labour at 7/4.

That means if you put £5 on Farage’s party, you would only win £17.50 if the bet was successful, slightly more than £13.75 the same winning stake would earn you on Labour and the £14.38 for the Tories.

Bookmakers have also witnessed a surge in bets on Keir Starmer’s exit year being 2025, with odds of 9/4 suggesting the Labour leader’s imminent exit has an implied probability of 30.77 per cent.

The embattled Labour PM has recorded the fastest drop in popularity since an election in history after unpopular calls on winter fuel and inheritance tax.

Labour is also facing a worsening economic picture after Reeves’ bombshell budget spooked markets and forced Reeves to change tack, ending the doom mongering and talking up Britain’s potential.

The political parties first major test comes in May when a large batch of local authorities are up for election, if they are not postponed due to the pending restructuring of local government.

In May 2026, national elections are due in Scotland and Wales, two areas Labour’s support has been crumbling against the Reform tide.