Matt Goodwin delivers his analysis as Reform hits new highs in polls

The Conservative Party fall behind with 15 per cent of the vote while the Lib Dems sit at 9 per cent.

Goodwin looks at each finding below and delivers his verdict:

Labour 40%, Reform UK 21%, Conservative 15%, Lib Dems 9%, Green 9%.

Goodwin said: "Consistent with other polls we have a strong Labour lead, though unlike other recent polls we have Reform in second place, though down 3-points on last week, and the Conservatives once again on 15%.

"In recent days, regarding Reform, the polls have been mixed with a high of 19% with Redfield and Wilton and a low of 14% with other pollsters.

"A recent MRP this week also put Reform on 18 seats. We have Reform down on last week but still high, in relative terms, on 21% of the national vote."

Most Brits do not believe Labour will improve the national economy.

When asked what difference a Labour government would make to the national economy, only 21% of voters felt Labour would make the economy stronger while 26% thought Labour would weaken the economy and 23% felt it would make no difference.

Prof Matt Goodwin said: "At the start of this election I said this would become the 'None of the Above' election, with widespread disillusionment with both of the big parties.

"Here again we can see this, with little public enthusiasm for a likely incoming Labour government on the economy. Given the tight fiscal constraints Labour will face in power if they win the election this appears to suggest the party will likely become unpopular very quickly."

A plurality of people would like to 'completely replace' the Conservative Party.

When asked which of the statements comes closest to their view, only 5% selected 'The Conservative Party should continue in its current form' while 23% felt the party should continue but in a different form and 38% felt it should be completely replaced.

Goodwin said: "This will ring very loud alarm bells in Conservative Party headquarters. Furthermore, the fact that even one quarter of conservative voters think the party should be completely replaced is a worrying sign.

"Only one in twenty voters, and not even one in five 2019 Tories think the Conservative Party should continue in its current form. This provides the backdrop to the inevitable leadership election campaign that will commence if and when Rishi Sunak loses the 2024 general election."

More people support Reform's suggestion of using the Royal Marines to return migrants to France than oppose it.

Overall, 43% of all voters would support this compared to 33% who oppose it. Among Conservatives, 71% support this while 16% oppose it.

Goodwin said: "If Nigel Farage and Reform were hoping that this policy would appeal to rank-and-file Conservatives then the bet appears to have paid off, with nearly three-quarters of 2019 Conservative Party voters supporting the policy and a plurality of all voters. There is clearly significant public appetite for using the Royal Marines to help resolve this crisis."

Only one in four voters support Labour's policy to make 'gender transition' easier.

When told that Labour plans to simplify the process of gender transition, by removing the need to live in a different gender for two years, only 24% of voters support the policy while 41% oppose it. Among Conservatives, 12% support it while 66% oppose it.

Goodwin said: "Once again, consistent with previous polls, we find that the more 'woke' policies pushed by gender ideologues actually only have minority public support.

"Only one in four support Labour's proposals while a plurality of all voters and a large majority of conservatives oppose them."