Labour would lose 34 seats- 92 per cent of its July 2024 haul- in Scotland if an election was held tomorrow, a shocking model has shown.
Keir Starmer’s party would only hold onto three seats north of the border in a massive swing to the SNP who would gain 36 seats, the projection showed.
EXPLORE: Projected electoral map of Scotland shows Labour on track for wipe out
Projected electoral map of Scotland shows Labour on track for wipe out
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Many safe Labour seats were projected to flip to the SNP like East Kilbride and Strathaven where Labour’s Joani Reid won by 9,057 votes, and Hamilton and Clyde Valley, where Imogen Walker triumphed with a margin of 9,472 votes.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives were projected to lose two of their five seats, while the Liberal Democrats would lose one, both to a dominant SNP led by Stephen Flynn in the Commons.
The map was based on pollsters FindOutNow most recent national poll. It put Labour in third nationally on 22 per cent.
The research found Reform to be the most popular party in Britain, polling 26 per cent of the vote share. It put the Conservatives in second on 23 per cent.
Current electoral map of Scotland
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FindOutNow’s research was then generated into an electoral map using the sophisticated Nowcast model.
Applied to the whole of Britain, the research showed Reform becoming the biggest party with 190 seats, up 185.
Despite leading the poll, Farage’s party would not win any seats in Scotland. It would win swathes of constituencies across north west England, west Midlands, Thames Estuary and south Wales Valleys, however.
It found Labour would be the second biggest party with 161 seats, down 250, while the Tories would win 141, up 20.
It comes after Labour cut winter fuel payments for roughly 900,000 Scottish pensioners struggling with the rising cost of living.
Starmer’s party also denied Scottish WASPI women compensation, slapped Scottish farmers with farm-threatening death duties and sparked market turmoil in the Scottish economy with a Reeves’ bombshell budget.
The SNP controlled Scottish parliament has also made some popular decisions recently, notably the freezing of council tax which compares favourably with large rises going on in England and Wales.
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PAEven so, the polling appears to show a remarkable comeback for a party who very recently lost its leader in scandalous circumstances.
Nicola Sturgeon was arrested after a probe revealed £600,000 had gone missing from the SNP’s coffers, an investigation that also brought down her husband Peter Murrell.
There is also the fact devolved administrations’ popularity typically holds up more than the national governments in Westminster, especially if the two are led by different parties.
Commentators say this is because devolved governments can claim credit for any successes while blaming the Westminster government for failures, usually stating that they have been underfunded.
The Scottish Parliament in Holyrood is led by the SNP, meaning Starmer’s Labour can be used as scape goats for some problems.
Polling in Scotland arguably holds more significance than the UK or England as Scottish Parliament Elections are due in May 2026.
The Holyrood Government uses a proportional representation voting system, which allocates seats based on numbers of votes received.
It is likely to benefit Reform far more than Westminster’s First Past the Post, to the point that election guru John Curtice predicted Reform could form a ‘blocking minority’ in Holyrood.
